The Dow index ended 0.13% lower after fluctuating between gains and losses on Wednesday. While an improvement in the US trade balance deficit was a positive, the yield curve inversion widened as worries over a weakening domestic economy drove demand for safer assets. Though close attention will be payed to the bond market to dictate sentiment, the effects may be limited should there be positive trade headlines as US and China resume trade negotiations today. Moreover, a slew of FED speeches will garner attention as markets seek clues on monetary policy amidst fears of a looming recession. Meanwhile today’s data front is expected to further reflect economic conditions and drive near-term direction as the US publishes 4th quarter GDP figure , jobless claims and pending home sales report.
The Dow Index struggles for clear direction as the price remains bounded by Bollinger bands. The formation of lower highs maintains the short-term downtrend however a trade through the support at 25350 is required to signal a bearish continuation and target the lower support at 25250. Meanwhile, a sustained move above the 25670 level would suggest a retest of the 50-period MA around 25760 with the next target at 25880.
Support: 25480 / 25350
Resistance: 25670 / 25760