The Single currency closed relatively unchanged yesterday after a slow and illiquid session courtesy of the 4th of July holiday. The currency pair was having a tough time to break above 1.13 in the last few sessions but the spot may rise above the psychological resistance today if German Factory Orders beat expectations. However, today’s main event is US NFP and the Unemployment rate, a weak data will somewhat guarantee the Fed cutting rates in July’s meeting, which will lead to a stronger Euro. On the other hand, a stronger data will probably lead Powell to remain ‘patient’ on the monetary policy, and the Common currency weaker.
The Euro is trading in the same range for the last few days with no apparent bias, as the bulls and bears are waiting for a catalyst to break to either side. The buyers have found support at 1.1270, and if price remains above it, we could probably see 1.13 being retested and possibly break above it in today’s session. However, if the bears successfully break below 1.1270, then 1.1250 major support level will be tested next.
Support: 1.1270 / 1.1250 / 1.12
Resistance: 1.13 / 1.1350