The Euro shrugged off its gains and closed lower on Friday after the US added 193,000 new jobs in March, surpassing market’s expectations. The overall sentiment remains bearish on this pair after a series of EU data disappointed last week. However, the Dollar’s demand was capped by the U.S. - China trade deal optimism. For the week ahead, the Single Currency could be at risk to more potential losses on the upcoming ECB policy meeting as Draghi may continue reiterating the need for caution in his press conference. Today, traders will mainly be focused on German Trade Balance and US Factory orders to determine the daily sentiment. If the German figures disappoint, it could dent the market sentiment even more and could open doors for additional downside pressure on the Euro.
The Euro was building a bullish momentum on Friday and attempted to break above the 50-day moving average (blue line) but the bears rejected it and took the price to new daily lows. Today, price is once again trying to break above the 50-day moving average, if the bulls would successfully break above it, we could see a corrective bounce towards 1.1250 (R1) or even higher before resuming its bearish trend. On the other hand, if the bears break below the recent minor support at 1.1210 (blue area), we could see more weakness towards 1.12 (S1) or even lower.
Support: 1.12 / 1.1176
Resistance: 1.1250 / 1.1280