Monday, July 6, 2020

Covid-19 Infects Stoxx Europe 600’s 4-Day Win Streak

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News shaping
the markets today

     

What’s happening: A record surge in US covid-19 cases put a break on the Stoxx Europe 600’s four-day rally, sending the index lower on Friday.

What happened: Investors shrugged off strong economic reports on Friday due to concerns over the continuous spike in new coronavirus cases in the US.

European stocks rose initially in the session, continuing the previous day’s strong momentum but soon pared gains despite upbeat services PMI reports from China and the Eurozone. US indices trading remained closed for the Independence Day weekend.

Why it matters: The Eurozone reported stronger-than-expected services data for June, with the Market Services PMI climbing to 48.3, from a reading of 30.5 in May. The June figure was ahead of the consensus expectations of 47.3. Meanwhile, Spain’s services activity returned to the expansion zone, with the services PMI jumping to 50.2 in June, from a reading of 27.9 in May. The Eurozone’s Composite PMI also surged to 48.5 in June, from May’s 31.9.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, also reported strong services data, with the Caixin services PMI spiking to 58.4 in June to reach its highest level in more than a decade.

Investors also shrugged off a positive jobs report from the US on Thursday, which showed the economy adding 4.8 million jobs, taking the unemployment rate down to 11.1% in June. Markets chose to focus, however, on the persisting rise in new covid-19 infections in 40 of the 50 states in the country.

Reports of the US witnessing its highest single-day case count of more than 55,000 on Thursday had investors on tenterhooks. Markets also digested news of a delay in Moderna’s final-stage trials of its covid-19 candidate.

Delivery Hero’s stock climbed around 5% on Friday after the delivery platform reported a whopping 94% rise in order numbers in the second quarter. Shares of Rolls-Royce declined by about 9% after Fitch Ratings lowered its corporate debt rating for the company to “negative.”

Land Securities Group reported some improvement in rental collections and footfall in June, with the commercial-property developer also planning to resume paying dividends from November.

After gaining around 2% on Thursday, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed lower by 0.8% on Friday, breaking its 4-day winning streak. Basic resources shares were the worst performers, declining 1.7% during the previous session. The index posted a gain of 2% for the week.

Meanwhile, the German DAX 30 index declined 0.6%, while the French 40 slipped 0.8% on Friday.

What to watch: Investors await retail sales and construction PMI reports from the Eurozone, while countries in the region are also scheduled to release some major reports today. The Eurozone's retail trade, which plunged 11.7% in April, is expected to surge 15% in May. Markets will continue to keep an eye on the global coronavirus numbers, which have surpassed 11 million.

The Markets Today

     

Crude oil will be in focus today, after booking gains last week.

Context: Oil futures ended lower on Friday, but still closed the week on a strong note following reports of a record decline in crude inventories.

Details: Trading volumes remained low on Friday, with the US markets remaining closed for the Independence Day weekend.

Investors were encouraged by the Baker Hughes report, which showed a decline in the number of oil and gas rigs to a record low of 263 last week, while active US oil rigs fell by 3 to 185. The EIA (Energy Information Administration) also reported a decline in commercial crude oil inventories of 7.2 million barrels to 533.5 million barrels in the US for the week ending June 26.

Markets were also boosted by US adding 4.8 million jobs in June, fueling hopes of a strong economic recovery from the covid-19 impact.

Meanwhile, concerns grew over the continuous rise in coronavirus cases in the US, Brazil and India.

Goldman Sachs projected that oil demand could recover to the pre-coronavirus levels only by 2022, with demand expected to drop by 8% this year, and recover by 6% in 2021.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude for August slipped about 0.8% to $40.3 a barrel on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) on Friday. The WTI gained more than 4% for the week.

Brent oil for September fell around 0.8% to $42.8 a barrel per barrel on ICE Futures Europe on Friday. The global benchmark oil also gained more than 4% last week.

 What to watch: Energy markets could remain under pressure due to coronavirus cases exceeding 11 million globally, with more than half a million fatalities. US crude oil traded down by 0.8% to $40.32 a barrel in today’s Asian session.

Other Markets: US indices trading closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up 0.36%, 0.45% and 0.52%, respectively.

Support & Resistances
for Today

     

market snapshot

     

Futures at 0400 (GMT)

What else to watch today

     

Germany’s factory orders and construction PMI, Spain's industrial production and consumer confidence indicator, France’s construction PMI and retail sales, Italy’s construction PMI, UK’s new car registrations and construction PMI, Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey as well as the US services PMI, composite PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.