Monday, March 11, 2019

DOWJONES - 11 March 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Dow index ended marginally lower on Friday following weak US jobs growth amidst global growth concerns. While the disappointment in economic data came from the NFP report showing the US added only 20K jobs in February, well below the estimate of 181K, the good news came from a lower unemployment rate and strong wages growth. The positive fundamentals ranging from economic data, a dovish FED, and Sino-US trade negotiations may have been priced in the markets as US indices are taking a breather from the 2 month rally. Investors will look to US retail sales data while monitoring US-China trade progress for new impetus to influence price action on the Dow Index today.

Technical Analysis

The Dow fell to an intraday low of 25213 before recovering losses to close at 25450 on Friday. The Index managed to hold above the 200-day MA at 25130 however has been treading below the 20-period MA since falling below the 25880 level. A break through the 20-period MA at 25530 would suggest the return of buying pressure, while breaking the resistance at 25880 would be needed to negate the bearish outlook. Should price sustain below the 20-period MA, the index should range lower before taking out Friday’s low of 25213 to target lower support levels.

Support: 25130 / 25040
Resistance: 25550 / 25760

Chart (H4)