Friday, October 4, 2019

EUR/USD

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Fundamental Highlights

The Euro continued to recover yesterday after US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI printed worse than expectations, reinforcing the US recession fears, which increased the probability of a rate cut to over 80% in the next FOMC meeting. Today, the crucial NFP data expected to show the economy added 145K jobs in September, following 130K in August. A weak data would support the dovish Fed expectations, sending the US Dollar even lower across the board, and the Single currency to retest 1.10 and possibly higher. Later on, Fed Chair Powell will be commenting on the current state of the economy and possibly hint for a future rate cut.

Technical Analysis

The Single currency bulls touched the 1.10 level yesterday but price quickly pulled back as it is still in a bear territory, as long as the pair is trading below the 200-day moving average. The buyers will attempt to retest the crucial moving average, and possibly break above it. The bears on the other hand, will protect the 1.1025 resistance level with everything they have, in an attempt to push price lower than the 50-day moving average to regain possession.

Support: 1.0960 / 1.0930
Resistance: 1.10 / 1.1025

Chart (H4)
EURUSD