The Euro may fall today while heading into the Fed rate decision tomorrow as the CME FedWatch tool is implying a 95.7% chance the Fed will cut by 25 bps on Wednesday, thus the cut may well already be priced in. Furthermore, the US dollar tends to appreciate following a Fed cut, as previous analysis has shown that the DXY has risen on the day of the cut in July and September this year. Additionally, the odds of a stronger greenback would increase if the Fed signal a pause in its easing cycle for this year.
The Single currency bears rejected price at the trend line yesterday as expected, and now they are looking to pull the pair down towards 1.1065 and possibly even 1.1025 by tomorrow. The bulls, on the other hand, need to break back above 1.1130 to regain possession.
Support: 1.1065 / 1.1025
Resistance: 1.11 / 1.1130