Monday, April 1, 2019

EUR/USD - 01 April 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro closed negatively for a second consecutive week, just above the 1.12 figure, as the US Dollar was favored by traders amid concerns of global economic downturn, in addition to the inverted yields curve in the US, dovish central banks, and the Brexit chaos. On Friday, German Retail Sales surprised to the upside and the March unemployment decreased by less than expected. US data were mixed, as the core PCE inflation was up by 0.1% MoM and by 1.8% YoY in January, but the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was down to 98.4 for March, while New Home Sales printed a solid 4.9% increase in February. Today, traders will turn their focus to the Italian, French and German Manufacturing PMI. Also, the EU will be releasing its CPI and the Unemployment Rate numbers. On the other hand, the US will release the February Retail Sales numbers and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Technical Analysis

The Euro found support just above 1.12 last week, pushing price a bit higher on Monday morning. A bounce towards 1.1250 (R1) or even 1.1280 (R2) is very likely before the bearish trend resumes. The bears need to break below 1.12 to confirm further weakness. However, a break above 1.13 will turn the tables to the bulls’ side.

Support: 1.1225 / 1.12 / 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1250 / 1.1280 / 1.13

Chart (H4)