Wednesday, March 6, 2019

EUR/USD - 06 March 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro fell to a fresh 2-week low at 1.1289 during the US session, as the US Dollar broke higher on stronger than expected data. In the EU, February's Services PMI was released yesterday, revised up to 52.3, while the Composite Index printed 51.9, showing strength in the private sector. Moreover, Retail Sales in the EU came in better than expected in January, rising by 1.3% MoM and by 2.2% YoY. However, the positive EU data failed to boost the pair, which extended its decline on upbeat US figures. The Markit Services PMI came slightly below the market's estimate of 55.8, printing 55.5, although the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI printed 59.7 from 56.7 in January, its biggest gain in a year. Today, the EU's calendar has nothing scheduled, so traders will shift their focus to the US ADP employment change at 1315 GMT, a precursor to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, while the Federal Reserve's Beige Book is at 1900 GMT.

Technical Analysis

The Euro continued its decline until price found support at 1.13 (S1). Price action looks weak, and a break below 1.13 looks very possible at this stage. The Single currency may face further decline towards 1.1250 (S2), once 1.13 (S1) is successfully broken. Alternatively, the bulls need to break back above 1.1325 (R1) to gain back control.

Support:1.13 / 1.125
Resistance:1.1325 / 1.1365

Chart (H4)