Wednesday, August 7, 2019

EUR/USD - 07 August 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro held its ground around 1.12 after yesterday’s German Factory Orders unexpectedly jumped 2.5% in June, spreading a bit of optimism in the marketplace. So today, an above-forecast industrial production cannot be ruled out. That will likely put a strong bid under the Single currency, helping the pair rise towards 1.1250. However, the common currency could fall back under Tuesday's low if the German data prints well below estimates, supporting the dovish European Central Bank expectations. Apart from the German data, the common currency could also take hints from European Central Bank member Benoit Coeuré's speech. The policymaker has little room to sound hawkish, given the recent economic slowdown and rate cuts by central banks across the globe.

Technical Analysis

The Euro bears attempted to break below 1.1180 yesterday, but the bulls stayed firm pushing price back towards 1.12 and closing there. Today the buyers are gathering momentum to retest the 200-day moving average along with 1.1250 resistance. A break above that level will likely extend the gains towards 1.1280. However, if 1.1180 is taken out, the sellers will likely regain control and the yearly-low 1.1030s will be exposed.

Support: 1.12 / 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1250 / 1.1280

Chart (H4)