Thursday, January 10, 2019

EUR/USD - 10 Jan 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro rises over 100 pips as three different bullish catalysts take place. First, the Single currency was supported by an upsurge in demand for high beta currencies as investor sentiment improved following optimism over the US/China trade negotiations. Second, the Euro strengthened as the Euro zone's unemployment rate falls unexpectedly to a 10-year low. The Euro zone's unemployment rate for November printed at 7.9% compared to the 8.1% forecast. Finally, the Common currency rose as the US Dollar weakened following dovish Fed Meeting minutes. The Fed Meeting minutes for the December FOMC meeting proved that the Fed is “less clear” with its policy path going forward and the lack of inflationary pressure is a viable argument against further increases. For today, Euro traders need to focus mainly on the release of the ECB's Account of Monetary Policy Meeting and the Fed Powell's speech in The Economic Club of Washington.

Technical Analysis

The Euro rises towards the 1.1550 resistance level after a break above 1.1500. Currently, momentum is strongly bullish as prices are trading well above all the three major moving averages. The next leg upwards will be triggered by a break above the 1.1572 resistance which will pave the way for a rise towards 1.1615. The contradicting scenario would be a break below today's low at 1.1532 which will allow for a drop towards the 13-period moving average (blue).

Support: 1.1532 / 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1572 / 1.1615

Chart (H4)