Friday, April 12, 2019

EUR/USD - 12 April 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro fell against the US Dollar yesterday, as better than expected data leaned in the greenback’s favor. Demand for the single currency was dented by the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters showing real GDP growth expectation for this year dropping to 1.2% from 1.5%, while 2020 forecast was also revised lower. German and French March inflation came out in line with the forecast. In the US, things were better as US PPI and Core PPI both beat market’s expectations. Also the Initial Jobless claims, fell to the lowest reading in almost five decades. Earlier this morning, the Euro jumped around 50 pips after reports stating that Chairman Powell thinks the US interest rates are in the right place which means no more hikes. The overall sentiment is still bearish on the Euro, but if today’s bullish momentum continues, and the bulls take out 1.13, the short sellers would need to cover thus making price push higher in a short period of time. Today, EU will release German Wholesale Price Index and February Industrial Production figure. The US on the other hand, will release April Michigan Consumer Sentiment index which is considered the most important economic data for the day.

Technical Analysis

The Euro found support at 1.1250 and bounced 50 pips to test the 1.13 (R1) and the 200-day moving average, critical resistance area. The overall sentiment is still bearish as long as price remains below 1.13 (R1). A successful break above 1.13, would take price higher to retest the next resistance level which is 1.1330 (S2). In case the bulls fail to breakout higher, then price could pull back towards 1.1260-50 (S2) area and potentially breaking below this current short-term uptrend.

Support: 1.1280 / 1.1250
Resistance: 1.13 / 1.1330

Chart (H4)