Friday, October 12, 2018

EUR/USD - 12 October 2018


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro continues its weekly rally after reaching the 4 Hour-200-period moving average at 1.1600. The weekly rise in the Euro is mainly attributed to the weakening U.S Dollar which lost ground as concerns grow about the future of the U.S economy. Investors believe that the U.S economy is not heating up showing no reasons why the Fed is pursuing a hawkish stance in regards to hiking rates. With the most recent Core CPI figure printing lower than expected at 2.2%, investors are starting to price-in the idea of the Fed altering their monetary policy into one that is more conservative and cautious.

Technical Analysis

The Euro is currently sitting at the 200-period moving average as investors speculate whether the recent drop in the greenback is due to a temporary retracement or a major shift in the trend of the currency. A break above the 200-period moving average will mean that the general trend of the Euro versus the U.S Dollar has shifted into a bullish one. Momentum is currently bullish explained by the recent cross of the 13-period moving average above the 50-period moving average. If the Common currency manages to break above the 200-period moving average then the 1.1642 level will be exposed.

Support: 1.1535 1.1438
Resistance: 1.1610 1.1642

Chart (H4)