Monday, July 16, 2018

EUR/USD - 16 July 2018


Fundamental Highlights

The Single currency rebounds after the market witnessed weakness in the greenback due to a disappointment in the U.S Consumer Sentiment figure. The U.S Consumer Sentiment dropped towards its six-month low and weakness on this front is attributed to consumers' concerns in regards to the trade war developments.

Today traders should watch for the release of the EU's trade balance figure during the European session. Moreover, they should also watch for the U.S Retail Sales figures which are set to be released just before the beginning of the U.S session. Since the pair is trading at a key resistance level, economic data releases today will guide the trend and determine whether the pair will break the resistance level to the upside or reject the level and fall back down.

Technical Analysis

The Euro bounced off the 1.1620 level with a V-bottom reversal pattern. The pair has recently broke above the 50-period moving average (yellow) signaling bullish momentum. Traders need to wait and see how the currency acts when it reaches the 200-period moving average (purple).

The 200-period moving average coincides with a key price action resistance level and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement meaning that this is a significantly strong resistance level. A break above 1.1724 will expose the 1.1800 level and a rejection of this level will drive the pair back down towards 1.1620.

Support: 1.16518 1.16108
Resistance: 1.17104 1.17909

Chart (H4)