Tuesday, July 16, 2019

EUR/USD - 16 July 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro got rejected at the trend line resistance yesterday and closed the day slightly negative as traders remain torn between two dovish central banks. Today, Germany’s Ursula Von Der Leyen will face a make or break vote in her quest to be the European Commission's first female leader. The common currency may come under pressure if lawmakers reject Von Der Leyen. In terms of macroeconomics, the EU will be releasing German ZEW Economic Sentiment, traders could be very sensitive towards additional weak German data and it could majorly impact the European currency, as the data coming out from the EU’s strongest economy hasn’t been at par lately. Furthermore, the US Retail Sales is also scheduled for release in the NY session. Finally, Fed Chair Powell will be updating his latest monetary policy decisions and possibly hinting a rate cut by the end of July.

Technical Analysis

The Euro bears rejected price at 1.1275, which is also the trend line resistance, but the pair is still stuck between 1.1245 and 1.1275. Market participants are waiting for a fundamental catalyst to break to break from this tight range. The bias for now is with the bears, as selling should accelerate should the 1.1245 support level break. Further weakness could drag the pair towards 1.12 and beyond. On the other hand, if the bulls manage to break higher, then 1.13 will be put to test.

Support: 1.1245 / 1.12
Resistance: 1.1275 / 1.13

Chart (H4)