Monday, September 24, 2018

EUR/USD - 25 September 2018


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro ends Monday's trading session unchanged following clear indecision in the market. The pair initially rose towards 1.18100 following Draghi's hawkish speech in which he stated that the ECB sees a “rigorous uptick in underlying inflation”, and he hinted that the ECB might hike rates as early as September next year. Moreover, the Euro was supported by the better than expected German IFO release which indicated optimism in the German economy. However, during the U.S session, things changed and the Euro was pressured lower by a stronger greenback. Investors began to demand the U.S Dollar as sentiment in the market shifted towards a risk averse state due to the concerns regarding the escalation in the trade war between the U.S and China. For today, investors will focus on any development relating to the trade war and also focus on the release of the U.S Consumer Confidence report.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the Euro continues to range around the 13-period moving average signaling indecision in the market. A break above the 1.17754 level will mean that investors are optimistic about EU's economic future which will drive the pair towards 1.18215. A break below the 1.17233 level will mean that investors are worried about the future of the global economy due to the trade war between the U.S and China. The break below the 1.17233 level will expose the 1.16414 level.

Support: 1.17233 1.16414
Resistance: 1.17605 1.18215

Chart (H4)