Tuesday, September 25, 2018

EUR/USD - 26 September 2018


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro is on hold as investors await today's FOMC meeting. The market is already pricing in a 95.0% chance of a rate hike this month, thus, investors should focus on Fed Powell's speech following the interest rate announcement. Investors should look to see if Powell will continue to be optimistic about the future of the U.S economy even with the continuous escalation in the trade war between the U.S and China and the economic worries seen in different parts of the world. If Powell states that the Fed might reassess their rate hike plan, this will signal pessimism and lead to a weaker greenback which will push the Euro higher.

Technical Analysis

Depending on Fed Powell's tone during his FOMC speech, the pair will either break above the range or below the range. A hawkish tone will strengthen the U.S Dollar and lead the pair to break below 1.17233 exposing the 1.16414 level. A dovish tone will weaken the U.S Dollar and push the pair to break above 1.17929 exposing the 1.18365 level.

Support: 1.17233 1.16414
Resistance: 1.17929 1.18365

Chart (H4)