Friday, November 30, 2018

EUR/USD - 30 November 2018


Fundamental Highlights

The Euro rises for the second day in a row after the German Unemployment rate surprised investors by printing lower/better than expected. The German Unemployment rate turned out to be 5.0% compared to the expected 5.1%. Such economic positivity within the biggest economy in Europe help lift the bloc’s internal currency. Additionally, the Single currency benefited again from the sell off in the US Dollar which began on Wednesday of this week following Fed Powell’s dovish remarks during his New York speech. For today, investors need to focus on the economic release of the EU’s CPI and Unemployment rate. Moreover, investors need to monitor the G20 summit and check if anything significant related to trade deals is announced. Note that an improvement in trade relations between any major global nations will boost economic sentiment and drive investors towards investing in high beta assets and currencies including the Euro.

Technical Analysis

The Euro continues to trade above the 13 and 50-period moving averages signaling the the short term momentum for the pair remains bullish. Nevertheless, prices have most recently rejected breaking above the 200-period moving average which indicates weakness from buyers. This means that the next leg up will only be confirmed if prices managed to break above both the 200-period moving average and the 1.1433 resistance. The break above these levels will pave the way for a rise towards the next significant resistance level at 1.1494. Keep in mind that a continuation in the failure to break above the 200-period moving average might lead to a lose of control by buyers and cause the pair to fall back down towards the 1.1315 support.

Support: 1.1315 / 1.1260
Resistance: 1.1433 / 1.1494

Chart (H4)