Friday, November 15, 2019

GOLD

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Fundamental Highlights

Third consecutive green close for Gold before reversing some of the gains in early trading today as U.S China developments outweigh Powell’s positive comments and mostly stronger U.S economic figures. Fed Powell reconfirmed his “pause mode” calling the U.S economy a rising star, stating that the expansion is on a sustainable footing while describing recession risk as not elevated. U.S Producer Price Index for the month of October came in higher than expected at 0.4% vs. a forecast of 0.3% and a previous of -0.3%, with Core PPI and Initial Jobless Claims also favoring dollar strength. On one hand, trade news released overnight by White house economic advisor Lawrence Kudlow stating that President Trump is not ready yet to sign off on the phase one deal rattled investors. On the other, sentiment of a successful conclusion of the trade deal is still healthy with China lifting a 4-Year ban on U.S Chicken. Investors await U.S retail sales figures to be released today.

Technical Analysis

Gold bounced off our resistance at $1478 which coincided with the 200 period SMA on the hourly chart, breaking below our short term uptrend and is currently trading below the 20,50 and 200 period SMA. A retracement to our support at 1460.62 is likely as long as price prints in our downward parallel channel, while a failure to print below S1 will keep bullish momentum alive.

Support: 1460.62 / 1445.83 / 1431.86
Resistance: 1474.84 / 1482.93 / 1493.49

Chart (H1)
GOLD