Monday, November 19, 2018

GOLD - 19 November 2018


Fundamental Highlights

With low market volume expected in the coming week due to the US holiday, a set direction for gold may be unclear. The dollar, being under a bearish influence amidst dovish Fed remarks, fiddles with the priced in rate hike outlook for December, putting the progression of the US economy in question and in turn giving gold a solid lift. A heated European political arena could drive speculative demand for the safe haven metal alongside the raised concerns over a slowing global economy. Moreover, the performance of the US economy will be further clarified by housing figures to be released this week. Attention to Fed member statements should put monetary policy into clearer perspective, as investors look for validation from two fundamental drivers, US dollar and the unraveling of global tensions.

Technical Analysis

There is a bullish outlook on gold as it extends its recovery from November’s bottom around 1198 to a high of 1225. The yellow metal’s price has broken above the Ichimoku cloud and hovers around the 100 MA at 1220.90 . Price action well above this level could signal a move to the upside with a new level of support in the picture. In the case where price holds above the cloud, it is expected to continue towards the upper Bollinger band. A decline in momentum could allow the price to fall to the 20MA or sit above the upper bound of the cloud as it continues on its uptrend.

Support: 1216.55/ 1213.53
Resistance: 1225.71. / 1228.22

Chart (H4)