Thursday, August 15, 2019

USD/JPY - 15 August 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Dollar fell against the Yen after sluggish activity data from China and the US-China trade tensions triggered the first in more than a decade yield curve inversion of the US 10-year and 2-year Treasuries. Adding to the sentiment is the latest drop of the US 30-year treasury yield to the record low under 2.0%. Moreover, President Trump tweeted blaming the Fed for mounting fears about a slowing US economy, and claiming that China is not their problem but rather the problem is the Fed and its interest rate policy. Market sentiment will remain tilted to the bears’ side as global recession risk remains high; unless a positive tweet by President Trump, regarding the trade-war changes the market structure.

Technical Analysis

The Yen bulls pulled the price back towards 105.80 yesterday after retesting 106.80, two sessions ago. Today, the bulls will likely attempt to push price higher towards the 106.30 and 106.80 resistance levels, but only a break above 107 will tilt the market sentiment towards the buyers. The bears, being in control, will have the upper hand to reject price at those highs, while targeting for new lows.

Support: 105.80 / 105.50
Resistance: 106.30 / 106.80

Chart (H4)