Tuesday, July 30, 2019

USD/JPY - 30 July 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Dollar was boosted yesterday amid the risk-on mood in US equities and ahead of Fed’s FOMC meeting which so far looks positive for the US Dollar. Earlier this morning, BOJ kept the interest rates in the negative territory as expected, while Kuroda said that Japan’s economy is expanding moderately but risks from overseas economies are high and he will not hesitate to add easing if price momentum is lost. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s Fed interest rates decision as traders will likely start positioning themselves accordingly from today’s session. If the prices close above 109 today that means they are confident enough that the Fed will not cut rates more than 25bps tomorrow, and we will likely see further bullish continuation in tomorrow’s session.

Technical Analysis

The Dollar bulls attempted to test 109 during yesterday’s session but the bears came in and pushed price lower to avoid the risk of being squeezed out. However, the Dollar buyers didn’t give up that easily, price held the recent uptrend and it is looking to bounce back to retest yesterday’s highs and eventually 109 in today’s session. The bears need to break below 108.60 and 108.45 to effectively stop or at least temporarily pause this recent bullish momentum.

Support: 108.45 / 108.30
Resistance: 108.75 / 109

Chart (H4)