Thursday, February 21, 2019

USDJPY - 21 February 2019


Fundamental Highlights

The Yen fell against the Dollar earlier today as Japan's manufacturing activity contracted in February for the first time since 2016; 48.5 vs 50.3 in January. This contraction in the manufacturing activity only validates BOJ's view that policy needs to stay accommodative and to continue to stimulate the economy if needed. However, in the US, the FED minutes revealed there was a widespread agreement to end the balance sheet normalization program by the end of the year. That's why USD/JPY's price action has been subdued so far. But once equities pick up a strong bid, the Yen may come under serious pressure and the USD/JPY pair will rise.

Technical Analysis

The Dollar/Yen remains bullish as long as the 50-day moving average keeps acting as a support. Traders will once again attempt to retest 111.10 (R1) today. However, a break below 110.60 (50-day moving average) the trend could change and the sellers will come back to price lower towards 110.

Support: 110 / 109.60
Resistance: 111.1 / 111.40

Chart (H4)