Thursday, April 18, 2019

USOIL - 18 April 2019


Fundamental Highlights

Having failed to rise beyond $64.60, WTI witnesses pullback to $63.60 during today's early session. Repeated failures to rise beyond $64.80 and mixed inventory data seems to pull the energy benchmark towards $63.00 immediate support. Prices rallied early on Wednesday when China’s headline data for GDP, retail sales and industrial production all flashed strong numbers. However, the gains couldn’t be held for long as traders considered a dip in EIA inventories smaller than the API mark. The report showed -1.396 million barrels of drawdown compared to +7.329 million forecasts and 7.029 million prior. On the other hand, Reuters reported that Iran’s crude exports have dropped in April to their lowest daily level this year as per tanker data and industry sources might also have weighed on WTI prices. Looking forward, investors may observe global economic calendar concerning the US, the UK and the EU, coupled with developments surrounding the US-China trade deal, in order to determine immediate market moves.

Technical Analysis

Crude oil prices surged back up to the yearly highs around the $64.5 level after regaining traction which built up the momentum then retreated after failing to break above the $64.6 level in a repeated scenario. The price is currently hovering around the 63.6 level and the RSI is showing a relatively weak momentum. We will be expecting the price to reach its weekly floor around the 63 area to reach the lower band of the channel represented on the chart.

Support: 64.07/ 63.43
Resistance: 64.48/ 64.83

Chart (H4)