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Trends & Analysis
News

Gold surges amid US-Iran deal prospects

News

Dow hits record closing high on US-Iran peace deal hopes

News

Nvidia’s stock dips despite Q1 beat, strong forecast

News

CAD falls versus USD following inflation data

News

Gold rises as Trump postpones Iran attack

News

Crude oil surges amid stalled US-Iran peace talks

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Asset Watch

Could evaporating liquidity upend the S&P 500?

 

Tuesday, May 2, 2023

While the S&P 500 ended April with a bang, bearish seasonality has arrived and typically lasts through the third week of May.  However, with the FOMC meeting scheduled for May 3, Apple’s earnings on May 4, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls on May 5, fundamental volatility could be amplified.
Likewise, as the U.S. dollar index and Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) showcase seasonal strength in May, the bullish tone from April could shift if a short-term catalyst arrives.
The recent banking crisis forced the Fed to expand its balance sheet to help troubled institutions. Those flows have since reversed, and the metric has declined for five-straight weeks, shown by U.S. bank reserves have also fallen, and the development often hurts the S&P 500.
S&P 500 Stock Chart Trading View

Declining reserves constrain banks’ ability to initiate loans and finance growth. In other words, it can hurt economic activity.

 

The grey line below tracks the S&P 500, while the red line below tracks reserve balances held at the Fed (U.S. liquidity). As you can see, the S&P 500 has largely followed the metric since the 2020 pandemic, as QE optimism in 2021 turned to QT pessimism in 2022. More importantly, the divergence on the right side of the chart shows how the S&P 500 has rallied recently in the face of contracting liquidity.

 

Is the decoupling a cause for concern, or is this time different?


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