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Asset Watch

Play Microsoft by the hour?

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

While depressed sentiment sunk the NASDAQ 100 last week, Microsoft emerged as a relative winner. The cloud-computing giant outperformed analysts’ earnings estimates on Oct. 24, and with Azure recording 29% revenue growth, CEO Satya Nadella said:
“Given our leadership position, we are seeing complete new project starts, which are AI projects. As you know, AI projects are not just about AI meters. They have lots of other cloud meters as well.”
Bernstein Research analysts also told clients that Microsoft “has taken the AI mantel from Google and that Azure could become a bigger and more important hyperscale provider than [Amazon Web Services].”

But while Microsoft’s bottom-up fundamentals kept it out of investors’ doghouse, the short-term outlook could be even more prosperous if the stock recoups a key milestone.

For example, the one-hour chart highlights how Microsoft’s 50-hour moving average has been an important barometer for weekly rallies. The rectangle on the left shows how Microsoft recorded a false breakout in late August before dropping back below the 50-hour MA and then rallying above it for roughly the next three weeks.

The rectangle near the middle shows a similar pattern, where a false breakout turned into another breakdown before a roughly two-week upswing occurred. So, with Microsoft dancing around its 50-hour MA last week, the next jump above could be the start of another uptrend.


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