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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 22nd of November 2024
This week, markets are closely monitoring the New Zealand interest rate decision, with expectations of a 50 basis-point cut following a drop in inflation from 3.3% in Q2 to 2.2% in Q3. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may opt for a more aggressive 75 basis-point cut to address the country’s economic contraction of (-0.2%) in Q2.
In addition, attention turns to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for October, projected to increase from 2.1% in September to 2.2%, with the core index (excluding energy and food) expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.8%. If the data exceeds expectations, it could complicate the Federal Reserve’s ability to reduce interest rates at its December meeting.
The pivotal factor will be the US jobs report released ahead of the Fed meeting. Should the data underperform and indicate clear economic weakness, a 25-basis-point rate cut in December becomes more likely. Conversely, if November’s labor market data shows that October’s sharp decline was primarily due to temporary factors like strikes and adverse weather, the Fed may pause rate cuts, deferring any adjustments to next year.
Monday, 25th of November
Tuesday, 26th of November
Wednesday, 27th of November
Thursday, 28th of November
Friday, 29th of November
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