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Asset Watch
Wednesday, 22 January 2025
President Trump began his term by declaring a state of emergency on key issues, including illegal immigration and energy policy. He removed restrictions that hindered the deportation of undocumented residents and lifted barriers to oil exploration and extraction across the United States aiming to boost production and increase exports of American crude oil.
Regarding tariffs, Trump delayed immediate action against China, instructing his administration to assess China’s compliance with the Phase One U.S.-China trade agreement reached during his first term. This move suggested Trump’s preference for negotiations before implementing additional tariffs, which increased market risk appetite and drove stock indices higher, while the U.S. dollar weakened.
Conversely, Trump hinted at the possibility of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in early February. This announcement initially caused the Canadian dollar to weaken against the U.S. dollar. However, the Canadian dollar rebounded following reports that Trump was hoping to renegotiate the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA), potentially avoiding the tariffs altogether.
Chart Source: ADSS Platform
The USD/CAD pair hit a multi- year high at 1.4515 before retreating as traders took profits. Currently, prices are consolidating within a bullish rectangle pattern.
Upside Scenario: If prices break and sustain above the upper boundary of the rectangle at 1.4461, the pair could climb toward 1.4671.
Downside Scenario: A daily close below 1.4281 would invalidate the bullish continuation pattern, with prices potentially declining to 1.4420. However, the support level at 50-day simple moving average should be considered.
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