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European stocks surge on progress in trade deal

Tuesday, July 08, 2025

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: European stocks settled higher on Monday, led by gains in banking and tech shares.

What happened: The European Union rushing in to conclude a temporary trade deal with the US before the deadline sent the STOXX Europe 600 index higher on Monday.

Energy stocks bucked the trend after OPEC+ announced a bigger-than-expected increase in output for August.

Why it matters: European stocks had started the year on a strong note, with the STOXX 600 index jumping to a record high in March. This was led by a surge in defence stocks and fuelled by investors avoiding US assets amid tariff concerns. The index has declined more than 3% from its March highs on concerns around economic growth in the region.

Investors have waited on tenterhooks for any news around a trade deal, with US President Donald Trump’s deadline of July 9 fast approaching. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that several trade-related announcements will be made in the next 48 hours.

The EU is aiming to reach a preliminary deal, which would allow it to lock in a 10% tariff on several products.

Speculations of the European Central Bank announcing another interest rate cut this year lent further support to the stock market.

Economic data showed that Eurozone’s investor sentiment had risen to its strongest level in more than three years, with the Sentix index rising to 4.5 in July, from 0.2 in the previous month. The figure also topped market estimates of 1.1.

Technology stocks were among the top performers on the pan-European index, with shares of SAP and ASML adding around 2% each on Monday.

Banking stocks also recorded sharp gains, with shares of France’s Societe Generale climbing to their strongest level since 2017.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.44% to close at 543.50 on Monday, after recording a weekly loss.

Most regional indexes also settled higher, with Germany’s DAX 40 up 1.2%, France’s CAC 40 adding 0.35% and Spain’s IBEX 35 Index rising 0.73%. However, UK stocks bucked the overall market trend, with the FTSE 100 index falling 0.19% to close at 8,806.53 amid a decline Shell’s stock after the energy giant said it sees a hit to its quarterly earnings due to downbeat trading at its integrated gas unit and losses in its chemicals and products operations.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring tariff-related news .

Inflation rate data from Germany and France and GDP data from the UK, due to be released later this week, will also remain in focus. Germany’s annual consumer price inflation is expected to ease to 2.0% in June from 2.1% in May, while France’s annual inflation rate is projected to accelerate to 0.9% in June from previous month’s reading of 0.7%.

The markets today

The Australian dollar in focus today ahead of some major economic reports

Context: The AUD/USD forex pair rose this morning as investors assessed the latest economic data.

Details: Data released on Tuesday showed Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index surged to 5 in June, from 2 in the previous month. Business confidence improved for the third month in a row and logged in the highest reading since January.

The US dollar came under pressure after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on 14 countries that are yet to finalise trade agreements. Meanwhile, Trump also suggested that the deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs could be delayed from July 9 to August 1.

Weakness in the US dollar lent support to the AUD/USD forex pair this morning. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.2% to 97.33.

The AUD/USD pair gained around 0.4% to 0.6519 this morning. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 rose around 0.001%.

What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on building permits (0530 UAE Time) and private house approvals (0530 UAE Time) from Australia on Wednesday. Analysts expect the number of total dwellings approved in Australia to rise by 3.2% to 15,212 units in May, following a 4.1% decline in April, while private house approvals are projected to grow by 0.5% to an eight-month high of 9,454 units in May, following April’s 5.9% gain.

Other Markets: US trading indices closed lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 0.94%, 0.79% and 0.79%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Ukraine announced drone attacks on Russia, which disrupted flights at airports in Moscow. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.


Philippines’ manufacturing production grew by 4.5% year-over-year in May, compared to 4.3% in the previous month. The country’s industrial activity expanding by the highest rate since July 2024 lent support to the PHP/USD forex pair.


Colombia’s annual inflation rate slowed to 4.82% in June, from 5.05% in the previous month. The latest reading also came in below market estimates of 4.9%, which sent the COP/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.


Brazil’s new vehicle sales declined by 5.7% in June to 212,900 units, following an 8.1% rise recorded in the previous month, which exerted pressure on the BRL/USD forex pair.


Japan’s current account surplus widened to ¥3,436.4 billion in May, from ¥2,949.5 billion in the year-ago period. Despite the figure topping market estimates of ¥2,940 billion, the JPY/USD pair fell in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Spain’s 3-month Letras auction (1240 UAE Time) and 9-month Letras auction (1240 UAE Time), UK’s index-linked Treasury Gilt 2049 auction (1300 UAE Time), Germany’s 5-year Bobl auction (1330 UAE Time), US NFIB business optimism index (1400 UAE Time), Redbook index (1655 UAE Time), consumer inflation expectations (1900 UAE Time), 52-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 3-year Note auction (2100 UAE Time) and consumer credit change (2300 UAE Time), Brazil’s retail sales (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s Ivey PMI (1800 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s industrial production (2300 UAE Time).


© ADSS 2025


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