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Gold prices recover ahead of Fed meeting

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday after recording sharp losses in the previous session.

What happened: Gold fell to its lowest level since July 9 on Monday, after a trade agreement between the US and the European Union weakened demand for safe havens.

The US dollar index rose to its highest mark since June 23, weighing on the yellow metal.

Why it matters: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China are continuing negotiations to maintain a tariff truce, which is scheduled to expire in two weeks. Trump will decide on any extension to the deadline.

While there was some relief in the markets after the US announced deals with the EU and Japan, the ongoing talks with China add some degree of uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision today. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. With Trump pressuring the Fed to slash rates, investors remain focused on any signs of a change in the monetary policy.

Gold benefits from an interest rate cut, as a lower yield on other assets raises the demand for the non-yielding bullion.

Strength in the US dollar weighed on gold prices, as a higher greenback makes metals more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, rose around 0.3% to 98.89 on Tuesday.

US gold futures gained 0.4% to close at $3,324 an ounce on Tuesday.

In other metals trading, silver gained more than 0.2% to reach $38.286, copper settled at $5.6255, while platinum and palladium closed at $1,419.6 and $1,279.20, respectively.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring talks between the US and China, hoping for a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

Data on ADP Employment Change (1615 UAE Time) and GDP growth rate (1630 UAE Time) from the US will also remain on focus. Private businesses in the US, which shed 33,000 jobs in June, are expected to add 78,000 jobs in July. Analysts expect the US economy to expand at an annualised rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, recovering from a 0.5% decline in the previous quarter.

The markets today

The Canadian dollar in focus today ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision

Context: The CAD/USD forex pair rose this morning amid weakness in the US dollar.

Details: Investors continued monitoring the latest trade deals between the US and its trading partners. The US and EU recently reached a framework trade agreement, cutting tariffs to 15%. The US also slashed auto tariffs on Japan to 15%.

Data released this week showed wholesale sales in Canada grew 0.7% in June, compared to a 0.1% gain in the previous month.

The Bank of Canada will announce its policy decision today. The central bank had kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at its June decision. Markets widely expect the BoC to not change rates at today’s meeting.

Some weakness in the US dollar lent support to the CAD/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell more than 0.1% to 98.77 this morning.

Lower prices of crude oil, one of Canada’s major exports, weighed on the loonie this morning. WTI crude oil prices slipped around 0.1% to trade at $69.16 a barrel.

The CAD/USD pair gained around 0.1% to 1.3764 this morning. The S&P/TSX Composite Index had closed higher by 0.49% at 27,539.88 on Tuesday.

What to watch: Investors await the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision (1745 UAE Time) today. Trade-related announcements from the US will also remain in focus.

Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.60%, 1.03%, 0.72% and 0.29%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

US President Donald Trump threatened fresh tariffs on Russia in 10 days if no progress is made to end the war in Ukraine. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.


Philippines’ trade deficit shrank to $3.95 billion in June, from $4.34 billion in the year-ago month, lending support to the PHP/USD forex pair.


Australia’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.1% in the second quarter, from 2.4% in the previous two periods. The latest reading being the lowest since the first quarter of 2021 sent the AUD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.


New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index climbed to 47.8 in July, from 46.3 in June. The region’s business sentiment rising to its highest level since April lent support to the NZD/USD forex pair.


The Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained its policy stance on Wednesday, sending the SGD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Germany’s GDP growth rate (1200 UAE Time), Italy’s GDP growth rate (1200 UAE Time), industrial sales (1300 UAE Time), 10-year BTP auction (1310 UAE Time) and 5-year BTP auction (1310 UAE Time), Eurozone’s GDP growth rate (1300 UAE Time), economic sentiment (1300 UAE Time), consumer confidence (1300 UAE Time), consumer inflation expectations (1300 UAE Time), industrial sentiment (1300 UAE Time), selling price expectations (1300 UAE Time) and services sentiment (1300 UAE Time), Brazil’s IGP-M inflation (1500 UAE Time), Spain’s business confidence (1500 UAE Time), US MBA mortgage applications (1500 UAE Time), treasury refunding announcement (1630 UAE Time), core PCE prices (1630 UAE Time), real consumer spending (1630 UAE Time), pending home sales (1800 UAE Time), EIA crude oil stocks change (1830 UAE Time), EIA gasoline stocks change (1830 UAE Time), EIA distillate stocks change (1830 UAE Time) and 17-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), Mexico’s GDP growth rate (1600 UAE Time), as well as Russia’s unemployment rate (2000 UAE Time), business confidence (2000 UAE Time), real wage growth (2000 UAE Time) and retail sales (2000 UAE Time).


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