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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 8 August 2025
Markets await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision, with expectations for a 25-bps cut to 3.60%. While inflation is approaching the RBA’s 2% target, a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% in May to 4.3% in June, along with modest GDP growth of just 0.2% in the first quarter, is adding pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates to support the economy.
Trader’s attention will shift to the release of the US Consumer Price Index report for July. According to market forecasts the YoY core inflation (excluding energy and food) could rise from 2.9% in June to 3.0% in July, while the YoY headline inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.7%. At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, with most members opting to wait and assess the economic impact of new tariffs, especially on inflation.
The Federal Reserve will closely track upcoming inflation and labor market data, as both are critical to its rate decision process. Following July’s disappointing jobs report, which showed unemployment rising to 4.2% and job gains falling short of expectations, markets almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting.
In the UK, preliminary GDP data for Q2 will be released later this week. After recording 1.3% year-on-year growth in Q1, Bloomberg forecasts the economy expanded by just 0.7% in Q2. A weaker-than-expected reading could signal further economic slowdown and increase the likelihood of additional Bank of England rate cuts.
Preliminary GDP figures for the eurozone will also be published. The European economy is expected to grow 1.4% year-on-year in Q2, slightly below the 1.5% pace recorded in Q1.
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