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Monday, September 29, 2025
What’s happening: US stocks closed higher on Friday after declining through the week.
What happened: US President Donald Trump’s surprise tariff announcements and the possibility of a government shutdown by Wednesday this week kept the pressure on stocks last week.
The Commerce Department’s latest inflation report sent all three major US indices higher on Friday.
Why it matters: The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index report released on Friday showed that inflation was in-line with expectations in August, while personal income and spending rose.
The US PCE price index surged by 0.3% in August, while gaining 2.7% year-over-year. Core PCE rose 0.2%, in line with expectations. The PCE index is viewed as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
The report sparked speculations of the Fed announcing more cuts in its benchmark interest rate. The central bank lowered interest rates by 25bps in September, for the first time since Trump took office.
Markets remain concerned about a potential government shutdown, as the White House scrambles for finances to fund operations. If Congress members are unable to reach a funding agreement by Tuesday, the federal government will be forced to shut down operations on Wednesday.
Shares of Paccar gained more than 5% on Friday, a day after Trump announced new import tariffs on heavy-duty trucks. Paccar manufactures most of its trucks domestically for the US. Trump also unveiled fresh tariffs on branded pharma products and upholstered furniture.
Shares of Electronic Arts surged around 15% after reports of the company being in advanced negotiations to go private.
The Dow Jones index rose 299.97 points, or 0.65%, to close at 46,247.29, while the S&P 500 added 0.59% to reach 6,643.70 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.44% to settle at 24,503.85. For the week, the 30-stock Dow Jones index fell 0.2% and the S&P 500 lost 0.3%.
What to watch: Investors await the third-quarter earnings season, which is scheduled to commence around mid-October. The release of US nonfarm payrolls report, due this Friday, will also remain in focus.
Data on pending home sales (1800 UAE Time) and Dallas Fed manufacturing index (1830 UAE Time) will be released today. Pending home sales in the US, which declined by 0.4% in July, are expected to rise by 0.1% in August. Analysts expect the Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing to decline to -7 in September from -1.8 in August.
Context: The EUR/USD forex pair gained this morning amid weakness in the US dollar.
Details: Data released on Friday showed Eurozone’s median consumer inflation expectations had accelerated to 2.8% in August. This marked an acceleration from July’s 2.6% and was the highest reading in three months.
Expectations for inflation three years ahead came in unchanged at 2.5%, while expectations for five years ahead rose to 2.2%, the highest since August 2022.
Markets widely expect the European Central Bank to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged this year. Economic data remains mixed, as services PMIs show signs of a recovery, while the slump in manufacturing activity deepens.
Weakness in the US dollar lent support to the EUR/USD pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell 0.2% to 97.98 this morning.
The EUR/USD forex pair gained 0.2% to 1.1727 this morning, while the EUR/GBP pair slipped to 0.8731.
What to watch: Data on Eurozone’s economic sentiment (1300 UAE Time), consumer confidence (1300 UAE Time) and industrial sentiment (1300 UAE Time) will be released today. The Economic Sentiment Indicator in the Eurozone, which fell 0.5 points to 95.2 in August, is expected to edge lower to 95.1 in September.
Analysts expect Eurozone’s consumer confidence to surge to -14.9 in September from -15.5 in the previous month, while the industry confidence indicator is projected to decline to -10.9 in September from -10.3 in August.
Other Markets: Asian indices traded mixed on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and China’s Shanghai Composite down by 0.73% and 0.21%, respectively, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index up by 1.18%.
The Polish army said that Russia’s attack on western Ukraine had led to Poland deploying fighter jets on Sunday to protect its territory. The news sent the RUB/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Australia reported a budget deficit of just under A$10 billion for the year ending June 2025. The latest reading coming in smaller than expectations of A$27.9 billion lent support to the AUD/USD forex pair.
China’s industrial profits surged by 0.9% year-over-year to 4.69 trillion yuan in the first eight months of the year. This marked a recovery from the 1.7% decline recorded in the first seven months, which sent the CNY/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Canada’s budget deficit shrank to C$1.5 billion in July from C$4.4 billion in the year-ago period, lending support to the CAD/USD forex pair.
Mexico’s trade deficit narrowed to $1.94 billion in August from $2.12 billion in the year-ago period, sending the MXN/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
UK’s BoE consumer credit (1230 UAE Time), mortgage approvals (1230 UAE Time), mortgage lending (1230 UAE Time), M4 money supply (1230 UAE Time) and net lending to individuals (1230 UAE Time), Eurozone’s consumer inflation expectations (1300 UAE Time), selling price expectations (1300 UAE Time) and services sentiment (1300 UAE Time), India’s industrial production (1430 UAE Time) and manufacturing production (1430 UAE Time), Brazil’s IGP-M inflation (1500 UAE Time) and bank lending (1530 UAE Time), Spain’s business confidence (1500 UAE Time), Mexico’s unemployment rate (1600 UAE Time), France’s 12-month BTF auction (1700 UAE Time), 3-month BTF auction (1700 UAE Time) and 6-month BTF auction (1700 UAE Time), US 3-month Bill auction (1930 UAE Time) and 6-month Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s current account (2300 UAE Time).
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