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Asset Watch
Tuesday, 30 September 2025
Gold prices continued their rally today, hitting a historic milestone by breaking above $3,800/oz for the first time ever. With momentum building, the metal is likely to test the $4,000 level before year-end.
One of the key drivers behind the surge in safe-haven demand is the growing risk of a U.S. government shutdown, should Congress fail to agree on a budget by month’s end. A shutdown would suspend pay for some non-essential federal employees, reduce consumer spending, and weigh on GDP growth. Adding further support to gold are rising expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and NATO’s more assertive stance in response to Russian airspace violations.
Attention also turns to the U.S. September jobs report due Friday. August data showed just 22,000 jobs created (far below forecasts) highlighting labor market weakness. Markets project a modest rebound, with 51,000 jobs expected and unemployment steady at 4.3%.
A weaker-than-expected reading would increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year and next, likely weighing on the U.S. dollar while boosting precious metals. Conversely, stronger data could ease pressure on the Fed, supporting the dollar and limiting upside for gold.
Since breaking above the April 22 peak of $3,500, gold has been on a strong upward trend, reaching fresh records near $3,900. A daily close above this level would confirm strong bullish momentum, reflected by an RSI reading above 70 in overbought territory. This could attract more buyers, paving the way for a move toward $4,000. In this case, the psychological resistance at $3,950 should be closely monitored.
Failure to hold above $3,800 would signal weakening bullish momentum, with profit-taking likely driving prices toward $3,700. In this scenario, the $3,750 level remains a key psychological support to monitor. Additionally, an RSI drop below 70 could confirm profit-taking activity and signal a potential price decline.
Chart Source: ADSS Platform
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