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Thursday, October 02, 2025
What’s happening: Crude oil gained this morning, ending a three-session losing streak.
What happened: Expectations of tighter sanctions on crude from Russia helped oil prices recover from 16-week lows.
Prospects of a higher supply from the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) next month limited the overall gains for oil.
Why it matters: On Wednesday, the finance ministers of the Group of Seven nations announced plans to build pressure on Russia by taking steps against countries that have continued to buy oil from Russia.
The US also announced plans to help Ukraine launch long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
On the supply side, OPEC+ is expected to increase oil output by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia looking to reclaim market share. The latest increase is expected to come despite a decline in demand from the US and Asia with factory activity shrinking across major economies in September.
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories climbed in the latest week, with weakening demand and refining activity.
Crude inventories surged by 1.8 million barrels to 416.5 million barrels during the week ended September 26, more than market expectations of 1 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 4.125 million barrels, compared to market estimates of 0.5 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 0.578 million barrels, versus expectations of a decline of 1 million barrels.
Investors remained concerned about the US government shutdown, which could weigh on the global economy.
Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to oil prices, as a softer greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged lower to 97.69 this morning.
Brent crude prices gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.60 a barrel this morning, while WTI crude climbed by 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.01 a barrel. On Wednesday, both the benchmarks had declined by around 1%, with Brent crude settling at its weakest level since June 5 and WTI closing at its lowest level since May 30.
In other energy trading, heating oil gained 0.3% to $2.3082 and gasoline rose around 0.6% to $1.8964. Natural gas bucked the trend and fell around 1% to $3.443.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on talks around the US government slowdown, which could significantly impact crude oil prices.
EIA’s data on natural gas stockpiles will be released today (1830 UAE Time). US natural gas inventories, which surged by 75 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 19, are expected to rise by 66 billion cubic feet in the latest week.
Context: The AUD/USD forex pair gained this morning amid some weakness in the US dollar.
Details: Data released this morning showed household spending in Australia rose by 0.1% in August compared to a 0.4% gain in July.
Australia’s goods trade surplus shrank to A$1.83 billion in August, from A$6.61 billion in the previous month. The figure also came in below market estimates of A$6.2 billion.
This marked the smallest surplus since June 2018, following a significant plunge in exports, which declined by 7.8% to A$41.86 billion in August versus a 2.5% gain in July. Australia’s goods imports rose 3.2% to a record A$40.03 billion in August, versus a 2.4% decline in the previous month.
Weakness in the US dollar lent support to the AUD/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged lower to 97.69 this morning.
The AUD/USD pair gained around 0.1% to 0.6619 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.07% to 8,940.20.
What to watch: Data on S&P Global composite PMI (0300 UAE Time) and S&P Global services PMI (0300 UAE Time) will be released by Australia on Friday. Analysts expect the S&P Global Australia composite PMI to decline to 52.1 in September from 55.5 in the previous month. The S&P Global services PMI business activity index is projected to decline to 52 in September from 55.8 in August.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.09%, 0.34% and 0.49%, respectively.
The European Union used revenue from frozen assets of Russia to send €4 billion to help Ukraine. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
South Korea recorded a current account surplus of $9.15 billion for August. This being the 16th month of surplus lent support to the KRW/USD forex pair.
Singapore’s private home prices rose by 1.2% in the third quarter, up from 1.0% growth recorded in the previous quarter, which sent the SGD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Colombia’s Davivienda manufacturing PMI declined to 52.0 in September, from 55.3 in the previous month, exerting pressure on the COP/USD forex pair.
Mexico’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.6 in September, from 50.2 in the previous month. Manufacturing activity slipped to the contraction zone sent the MXN/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Italy’s unemployment rate (1200 UAE Time), UK’s DMP 1Y CPI expectations (1230 UAE Time), DMP 3M output price expectations (1230 UAE Time) and Treasury Gilt 2035 auction (1300 UAE Time), Spain’s 10-year Index-Linked Obligation auction (1240 UAE Time), 17-year Green Bonus auction (1240 UAE Time), 5-year Bonus auction (1240 UAE Time) and 7-year Obligacion auction (1240 UAE Time), Eurozone’s unemployment rate (1300 UAE Time), France’s 2035 OAT auction (1300 UAE Time), 2036 OAT auction (1300 UAE Time), 2044 OAT auction (1300 UAE Time) and 2060 OAT auction (1300 UAE Time), Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), US Challenger job cuts (1530 UAE Time), 4-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 8-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 15-year Mortgage Rate (2000 UAE Time) and 30-year Mortgage Rate (2000 UAE Time), as well as Singapore’s SIPMM manufacturing PMI (1700 UAE Time).
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