Tesla shares slide despite blowout Q3 deliveries

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Shares of Tesla fell sharply on Thursday, after climbing through the week.

What happened: Tesla closed the trading session down more than 5% while all three major US stock indices ended with gains.

Thursday turned out to be the worst session for Tesla’s stock in more than two months, despite the electric vehicle maker reporting record deliveries in the third quarter.

Why it matters: Tesla reported vehicle deliveries of 497,099 vehicles in the September quarter, representing 7.4% year-over-year growth. The figure came in significantly higher than the consensus estimate of 443,000 and marked Tesla’s first year-over-year increase in deliveries in 2025.

The third-quarter growth follows two quarters of steep declines in Tesla’s EV sales. Model 3 and Model Y contributed the most, with total deliveries of 481,166 units, up 9.4% year-over-year.

US President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill, which was signed into law in July, set September 30 as the expiration date for the $7,500 tax credit enjoyed by buyers of EVs.

Investors believe that the jump in Tesla’s deliveries in the third quarter was due to people pulling forward their EV purchases before the expiration of the tax credit.

Some profit taking also impacted Tesla’s stock, which had rallied by 33% in September and had climbed steeply since the beginning of the week.

With the end of the tax credit, focus is likely to shift to the hype around Tesla’s self-driving innovations and the company’s claims about the Optimus robot.

How shares responded: Tesla’s shares plummeted 5.11% to close at $436.00 on Thursday. The stock has surged more than 63% over the past six month.

What to watch: Investors will monitor overall EV sales. While markets widely expect EV sales to contract in the fourth quarter, following the expiration of the government tax credit, most analysts project accelerating sales growth in 2026.

Tesla is gearing up to report its third-quarter results after market close on October 22. The consensus estimates for revenues and earnings for the quarter stand at $25.42 billion and 48 cents per share, respectively.

The markets today

Asian stocks in focus today ahead of some major economic reports next week

Context: Asian stocks edged higher this morning as investors brushed aside concerns over the US federal government shutdown and Trump’s tariffs.

Details: The Asian equity markets mirrored the three main US indices, which ended Thursday’s trading session higher, backed by strength in tech stocks.

Japan released a slew of mixed data on Thursday and this morning. The country’s consumer confidence index improved to 35.3 in September, from 34.9 in the previous month. This was the highest reading since December 2024 and came in better than market estimates of 35.2.

Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 2.6% in August, from 2.3% in the previous month. The figure was worse than market estimates of 2.4%. The number of unemployed rose by 150,000 to a 13-month high of 1.79 million.

Although the S&P Global Composite PMI for Japan declined to 51.3 in September, from 52.1 in the previous month, it remained in the expansion zone and came in better than the preliminary estimate of 51.1.

Sentiment was also supported by South Korea’s largest chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reporting a new deal and OpenAI. This added to the AI-driven bullish sentiment that has been pushing tech stocks higher.

The Asia Dow rose 0.79% to 5,144.70 this morning, while the Nikkei 225 climbed 1.44% to 45,584.54. China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.52% to reach 3,882.78 and India’s Sensex rose 0.89% to 80,983.31. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the trend, falling 0.82% to 27,064.61.

What to watch: India will report its foreign exchange reserves today (1700 UAE Time). India’s forex reserves had declined to $702.6 billion in the week of September 19 from $703.0 in the previous week.

Japan will report its household spending on Tuesday and current account balance on Wednesday. The country’s household spending rose to 1.70% in July from -5.20% in the previous month. The country’s current account surplus contracted to ¥2,684.3 billion in July, from ¥3,319.7 billion in the year-ago month.

Other Markets: US trading indices closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.17%, 0.06% and 0.39%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the responsibility for ending the war in Ukraine lies with the European nations, as US President Donald Trump continues to seek support. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.

The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI slipped to 52.4 in September, from 55.5 in August. This being the weakest expansion since June exerted pressure on the AUD/USD forex pair.

Singapore’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September, from 50.0 in the previous month. This being the highest reading in six months sent the SGD/USD higher in forex trading this morning.

South Africa’s total vehicle sales jumped 24.3% year-on-year to 54,700 units in September. This was the highest figure for that month since 2015 and lent support to the ZAR/USD forex pair.

Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $86.7 billion in the week ending September 26, from $85.1 billion in the previous week. However, the TRY/USD pair fell in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Eurozone’s HCOB Composite PMI (1200 UAE Time), Italy’s retail sales (1200 UAE Time), UK’s S&P Global Composite PMI (1230 UAE Time), EU’s PPI (1300 UAE Time), Brazil’s industrial production (1600 UAE Time), Mexico’s gross fixed investment (1600 UAE Time), Brazil’s S&P Global Services PMI (1700 UAE Time), Canada’s S&P Global Composite PMI (1730 UAE Time), US S&P Global Composite PMI (1745 UAE Time), ISM Services PMI (1800 UAE Time) and Baker Hughes oil rig count (2100 UAE Time).