EUR/USD Faces a Key Resistance Level

End of the U.S. Government Shutdown

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has officially ended; however, returning to normal operations may take several days or even a week in some cases.
One of the main areas of focus will be the resumption of payroll systems, particularly after a prolonged suspension, as back pay must be issued to government employees covering the shutdown period.

Meanwhile, Wall Street investors will closely watch the return of key government agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data, including the US job market reports, consumer price indices, and personal consumption expenditure indicators, after a period of uncertainty regarding the true performance of the U.S. economy during the shutdown.

That said, these long-awaited statistics are unlikely to be released immediately, as the relevant agencies will need some time to resume operations and finalize reports following the reopening.

U.S – EU Trade Understanding

The European Union is preparing to propose a plan to implement the second phase of the trade agreement reached with the United States last summer. Under the existing framework, the U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on most goods imported from the EU, while certain European products benefit from lower tariffs in exchange for the EU reducing or removing tariffs on selected U.S. industrial and agricultural exports.

Moreover, the European Commission is reportedly planning to propose a revised tariff system that would reduce U.S. import duties on some metals, following the U.S. administration’s previous decision to impose 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Europe.

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis

On October 7, the EUR/USD pair began a downward trend, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Last week, prices rebounded from the lower boundary of the current trading range between 1.1484 and 1.1664 and may now be on their way to test the high end of that zone.

A daily close above 1.1664 would signal the end of the bearish trend, allowing bullish traders to take control and potentially drive prices higher toward 1.1860. In this scenario, traders should pay close attention to the resistance level at 1.1715.

Key Levels to Watch in the Alternative Scenario

If prices fail to sustain their upward movement and close below 1.1484, this will indicate a continuation of bearish momentum, with the pair likely to decline toward 1.1309. In this case, the support level at 1.1386 should be monitored closely.

EUR/USD – Daily Price Chart

Chart Source: ADSS Platform