Silver Price Awaits Key Data Ahead of the Fed Meeting

The last jobs report before the December rate decision

Markets are awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for September, which will be the final release revealing the state of the American labour market before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for December 9–10. The releases for both September and October had been delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown. Accordingly, the September jobs report will be issued, while the data for October and November will be combined and released on December 16, a week after the Fed’s rate decision. The delay is due to the inability to collect October’s household survey data, which is crucial for calculating unemployment levels.

Declining odds of a rate cut

Expectations for a rate cut have eased after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and several other Fed officials questioned the likelihood of a cut at the December meeting. The minutes of the most recent October meeting also revealed divisions among members, with some expressing reservations about lowering rates, while others supported a 25-basis-point cut, and one member calling for a 50-basis-point reduction.

Based on this split and on concerns voiced by members about rising inflation levels, the probability of a rate cut has fallen to 50%. The postponement of U.S. labour market data until December 16 has further increased uncertainty surrounding a rate cut, bringing the odds of a December reduction down to roughly 30%.

Additionally, the White House indicated that the release of the October CPI report may be cancelled due to data-collection challenges. The U.S. dollar has benefited from the decline in rate-cut expectations, while precious metals such as silver, have retreated due to their inverse correlation with dollar movements.

Silver Price – Technical Analysis

On October 30, silver corrected its upward trend and began moving sideways, forming lower highs along with higher lows. At present, the precious metal is trading within the zone located between $54.46–$49.84, and it has twice failed to close below the low end of this zone. A daily close below $49.84 may encourage bears to take the lead and press toward $44.20. In such a scenario, support levels at the 50-day simple moving average and at $45.56 should be monitored.

Key Levels to Watch in the Opposite Scenario

A daily close above the October 17 high at $54.46 would signal a resumption of the upward trend, possibly leading the price toward $57.00. In this scenario, the psychological resistance level at $56.00 should be kept in focus.

Silver – Daily Price Chart

Chart Source: ADSS Platform