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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 21 November 2025
Markets are awaiting several important economic releases and key updates from major central banks. This week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, which is widely expected to include a 25-basis-point cut from 2.50% to 2.25%. One of the main reasons behind this reduction is the anticipated decline in inflation from 3% during the third quarter toward its 2% target. However, the more significant factor is the need for additional economic stimulus, especially after the economy contracted in the second quarter and slipped into negative territory by (-0.9%), accompanied by downward revisions to future growth forecasts and ongoing volatility in the labor market. Investors will also listen closely to the press conference by the RBNZ Governor for more clarity on the future path of monetary policy, particularly the interest rate outlook for 2025.
Markets will also track this week’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data for September, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Markets expect the YoY headline PCE index to rise from 2.7% in August to 2.8% in September, while the YoY core index (excluding food and energy) may ease from 2.9% to 2.8%. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its most recent meeting in October, but the Chair cautioned that another rate cut in December is uncertain. Several additional Fed members have also expressed doubts about another reduction due to concerns over rising inflation. Therefore, the upcoming inflation data will carry significant weight, as a PCE reading above expectations may strengthen the argument of those members, an argument that has already gained momentum following the September U.S. jobs report, which showed the economy adding more than 100,000 jobs compared with expectations of 51,000.
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