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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 28 November 2025
This week, investors will focus on the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Index data for November. Expectations suggest the year-over-year headline inflation rate will stabilize at 2.1%, while year-over-year core inflation (excluding energy and food) may decline from 2.4% to 2.3%. Service-sector inflation remains a key point of attention due to its close link to rising wage levels.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates eight times between June 2024 and June 2025, then paused further cuts as inflation stabilized and moved closer to its 2% target. Currently, markets are pricing in a 97% probability that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming December meeting.
Therefore, if inflation readings come in lower than expected, some policymakers may consider rate cuts next year to help stimulate European economic growth, particularly since the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration has not yet appeared clearly in the European economy, which may require further support next year. As a result, rising expectations of rate cuts could strengthen investor risk appetite.
Markets will also monitor Switzerland’s November CPI data this week. Swiss inflation is expected to remain stable at 0.1% for the month. Inflation had held at 0.2% during Q3 2025 before declining to 0.1% in October, indicating a downward trend. The head of the Swiss National Bank previously signalled that the Bank is not inclined to cut rates into negative territory, though he did not fully rule it out, noting that such a move would depend on a significant drop in inflation. Therefore, any lower-than-expected inflation readings may push Swiss policymakers to seriously consider lowering interest rates (currently at 0%) into negative territory.
Toward the end of the week, attention will shift to U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data for September, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The year-over-year headline PCE rate is expected to rise from 2.7% in August to 2.8% in September, while year-over-year core PCE (excluding energy and food) may decline from 2.9% to 2.8%. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its most recent meeting in October. Markets are currently pricing in a 79% probability of another 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming December meeting, especially following comments from FOMC members such as Mr. Williams and Mr. Waller hinting at the possibility of further rate reductions. Therefore, if PCE readings come in lower than expected, this may reinforce market expectations and lead to stronger pricing of a rate cut.
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