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Thursday, January 08, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil prices rose this morning after recording losses for two days.
What happened: Investors responded to the US threatening to gain long-term control over Venezuela’s crude oil.
Markets also digested the US Energy Information Administration’s report of crude oil stockpiles released on Wednesday.
Why it matters: Tensions rose as the US kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation over the weekend. Maduro and his wife pleaded ‘not guilty’ to charges of drugs and possession of weapons in a New York courtroom on Monday.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday that there is a need for the US to control Venezuela’s oil sales and revenues “indefinitely” to stabilise the country’s economy. Meanwhile, US authorities seized more Venezuelan-linked oil tankers, intensifying the enforcement of sanctions.
Markets expect President Donald Trump to name a more dovish Federal Reserve Chairman in May. Softer labour data also reinforced projections of interest rate cuts this year, supported the demand outlook for oil.
The EIA on Wednesday said that US crude inventories declined by 3.831 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels during the week ended January 2. This came against market expectations of a build of 1.1 million barrels. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles at the Cushing delivery hub surged by 728,000 barrels in the week.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on crude oil prices, as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained around 0.1% to 98.76 this morning.
Spot price for WTI crude oil edged higher to $56.31 per barrel this morning, while Brent crude traded at $60.21 per barrel.
In other commodities trading, gasoline prices gained 0.6% to $1.7053 this morning, while heating oil surged 0.8% to trade at $2.0738 and natural gas prices jumped 1.3% to $2.950.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on Friday’s NFP (nonfarm payrolls) data from the US to get further insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. US nonfarm payrolls, which surged by 64,000 in November, following a 105,000 decline in the previous month, are expected to rise by 55,000 in December.
Data on initial jobless claims (1730 UAE Time) and balance of trade (1730 UAE Time) from the US will be released today. The ongoing situation in Venezuela will also remain in focus.
Context: The USD/CAD forex pair rose this morning as investors digested the latest economic data from Canada.
Details: Data released on Wednesday showed that Canada’s Ivey Purchasing Managers Index surged to 51.9 in December from 48.4 in the previous month. The figure also topped market estimates of 49.5. The latest reading signalled a return to growth after a month in the contraction zone.
US President Donald Trump signalled efforts to re-establish imports of crude oil from Venezuela, which might impact the market share for Canada’s energy exporters. Meanwhile, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney recently said that the country’s crude is low risk and will remain competitive, even if there is a rise in Venezuelan exports.
Higher prices of crude oil, one of Canada’s main exports, lent support to the loonie this morning.
The USD/CAD pair edged higher to 1.3864 this morning.
What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on Canada’s balance of trade (1730 UAE Time) today. Canada’s trade, which recorded a surplus of C$0.15 billion in September from a deficit of C$6.3 billion in the previous month, is expected to swing back to deficit of C$1.4 billion in October.
The release of Friday’s jobs data will also remain in focus. Analysts expect Canada’s employment to decline by 5,000 in December following a 54,000 gain in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.6% from 6.5%.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index and S&P 500 down by 0.94% and 0.34%, respectively, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.06%.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its forces shot down 129 Ukrainian drones. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Australia’s goods trade surplus fell to A$2.94 billion in November from A$4.35 billion in the previous month. The latest reading coming in below market estimates of A$4.9 billion exerted pressure on the AUD/USD forex pair.
Japan’s nominal wages rose 0.5% year-over-year in November, easing sharply from October’s 2.5% surge. The figure missing market estimates of 2.3% growth sent the USD/JPY pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Colombia’s exports declined 2.7% year-over-year to $4.02 billion in November, following a 11.1% surge in the previous month, lending support to the USD/COP forex pair.
Chile’s trade surplus rose to $3.6 billion in December from $2.3 billion in the year-ago period, as growth in exports outpaced imports, sending the USD/CLP pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Eurozone’s consumer inflation expectations (1300 UAE Time), economic sentiment (1400 UAE Time), unemployment rate (1400 UAE Time), consumer confidence (1400 UAE Time), consumer inflation expectations (1400 UAE Time), industrial sentiment (1400 UAE Time), PPI (1400 UAE Time), selling price expectations (1400 UAE Time) and services sentiment (1400 UAE Time), Italy’s unemployment rate (1300 UAE Time), South Africa’s ABSA manufacturing PMI (1300 UAE Time) and manufacturing production (1500 UAE Time), UK’s BBA mortgage rate (1400 UAE Time), as well as US Challenger job cuts (1630 UAE Time), nonfarm productivity (1730 UAE Time), unit labour costs (1730 UAE Time), used car prices (1800 UAE Time), wholesale inventories (1900 UAE Time), EIA natural gas stocks change (1930 UAE Time), and consumer inflation expectations (2000 UAE Time).
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