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Thursday, March 12, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil traded higher this morning, recording gains for the second consecutive session.
What happened: Concerns over the ongoing US-Iran war overshadowed the release of oil reserves by several major economies.
Investors also responded to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report of crude oil stockpiles.
Why it matters: Iraq announced that operations at its oil terminals had been halted after two oil tankers carrying oil were targeted in Iraqi waters, increasing concerns over fuel supply.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country needs guarantees against future attacks for a ceasefire to be considered, which the US has not yet accepted. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and commercial tankers remain stranded off the coast of Iran.
While President Donald Trump promised military escorts through the route, the US Navy has refused these requests due to the high risk of attack.
The ongoing war has forced major oil producers in the Middle East to announce a significant decline in output, raising further pressure on global supply.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its biggest-ever release of emergency oil reserves. Member states are scheduled to release 400 million barrels of oil to curb rise in crude prices. The proposed plan is significantly higher than the 182 million barrels released in 2022 in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.
EIA’s data released on Wednesday showed that US crude inventories rose by 3.824 million barrels to 443.1 million in the week ending March 6, more than market expectations of 1.1 million barrels. This marked the third straight weekly rise.
Distillate inventories declined by 1.3 million barrels to 119.4 million, versus market estimates of 0.7 million barrels, while US gasoline stockpiles contracted by 3.7 million barrels to 249.5 million, compared to market expectations of a decline of 2.6 million barrels.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on oil prices, as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained over 0.1% to 99.41 this morning.
Spot prices for WTI crude oil jumped 5.5% to $92.10 per barrel this morning, while Brent crude surged 5.3% to $96.47 per barrel.
In other commodities trading, gasoline prices rose 4.5% to $2.9136, while natural gas added 1.6% to trade at $3.261 and heating oil jumped 5.8% to $3.8902.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
EIA’s data on natural gas stocks change (1830 UAE Time) will be released today. US natural gas stockpiles, which dipped 132 billion cubic feet in the week ended February 27, are expected to decline by 42 billion cubic feet in the latest week.
Context: The Canadian dollar gained versus the US dollar this morning, amid surging energy prices.
Details: Loonie has been on the rise due to gains in oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting Canada’s position as a secure provider of energy for the US.
Higher prices of crude oil, one of Canada’s major exports, provided a boost to the Canadian dollar this morning, with spot prices for WTI crude oil jumping 5.5% to $92.10 per barrel.
The Bank of Canada also provided support to its currency by maintaining a 2.25% policy rate to address sticky inflation of 2.3% and a tight unemployment rate of 6.5%. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve might is feeling the pressure to cut interest rates after the country unexpectedly reported the loss of 92,000 jobs.
The USD/CAD pair edged lower to 1.3589 this morning.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring the ongoing US-Iran war.
Data on Canada’s balance of trade (1630 UAE Time), building permits (1630 UAE Time) and wholesale sales (1630 UAE Time) will be released today.
Canada’s trade deficit, which narrowed to C$1.31 billion in December from C$2.58 billion in the previous month, is expected to shrink further to C$0.9 billion in January. Building permits in Canada, which surged 6.8% to C$12.8 billion in December, are expected to decline by 2% in January. Analysts expect Canada’s wholesale sales to decline by 0.6% in January.
Other Markets: European indices closed lower on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index down by 0.56%, 1.37%, 0.19% and 0.59%, respectively.
Ukraine started to regain some territory for the first time in almost three years amid Russian military woes. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.
UK’s house price balance declined to -12% in February from -10% in the previous month. The latest reading missing market estimates of an improvement to -9% exerting pressure on the GBP/USD forex pair.
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations surged to 5.2% in March from 5.0% in February. This being the highest level since July 2023 sent the AUD/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Japan’s business survey index for large manufacturers dipped to 3.8% in the first quarter from 4.7% in the previous quarter, lending support to the USD/JPY forex pair.
Brazil’s retail sales climbed by 0.4% in January, compared to a 0.4% decline in December, which sent the USD/BRL pair lower in forex trading this morning.
South Africa’s current account (1300 UAE Time), gold production (1330 UAE Time), mining production (1330 UAE Time) and manufacturing production (1500 UAE Time), India’s inflation rate (1430 UAE Time), Turkey’s interest rate decision (1500 UAE Time) and foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Brazil’s inflation rate (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s new motor vehicle sales (1630 UAE Time), US building permits (1630 UAE Time), housing starts (1630 UAE Time), balance of trade (1630 UAE Time), goods trade balance (1630 UAE Time), initial jobless claims (1630 UAE Time), continuing jobless claims (1630 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s inflation rate (2300 UAE Time).
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