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Friday, March 20, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil prices fell this morning after recording gains in the previous session.
What happened: Recent comments from the US and Israel provided some hopes of no further damage being inflicted on energy infrastructure in the Middle East.
Strength in the US dollar also weighed on crude oil prices this morning.
Why it matters: Oil prices have surged almost 50% since the beginning of the US-Iran war, as the conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing key producers in the Middle East to slash output.
Iran announced missile strikes on a Qatar facility, the world’s largest LNG (liquified natural gas) plant, after Israel struck Iran’s Asaluyeh refinery and the South Pars gas field.
US President Donald Trump said he had prior knowledge of the attack by Israel but urged to refrain from more attacks on energy sites.
Trump added that the US is not looking to deploy ground troops in the Middle East, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington is considering to remove sanctions on Iranian oil.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they would avoid launching further attacks on Iran’s energy facilities and that the war could end sooner than expected.
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, citing higher inflation due to the impact of the war.
Data released on Wednesday showed that US crude inventories rose by 6.16 million barrels to 449.3 million in the week ending March 13, higher than market estimates of a gain of 0.4 million barrels. This marked the fourth straight weekly rise.
Distillate inventories declined by 2.5 million barrels to 116.9 million, while US gasoline stockpiles fell by 5.4 million barrels to 244.1 million during the week.
Strength in the US dollar exerted further pressure on oil prices, as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained more than 0.1% to 99.37 this morning.
Spot prices for WTI crude oil fell 1.8% to $92.68 per barrel this morning, while Brent crude tumbled 2.1% to $102.04 a barrel.
In other commodities trading, natural gas fell 1.2% to $3.129, while heating oil declined 2.2% to $4.0057 and gasoline prices fell 1.4% to $3.0804.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the ongoing war, which is expected to significantly impact oil price ahead.
Data on Baker Hughes oil rig count (2100 UAE Time) and Baker Hughes total rigs count (2100 UAE Time) will be released today. Crude oil rigs in the US rose to 412 in the March 13 week from 411 in the previous week, while total rigs climbed to 553 from 551 in the previous week.
Context: The USD/CAD forex pair fell this morning as investors assessed the monetary policy outlook.
Details: On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada kept its overnight target rate unchanged at 2.25%, in-line with market estimates and its previous guidance. The central bank remained concerned around the impact of the war in the Middle East, which has triggered higher volatility in global energy prices and poses risks to the global economy.
Policymakers also said that economic growth is likely to be weaker than earlier expected in the near term.
The US Federal Reserve also kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for the second straight meeting, in-line with market expectations.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on the Canadian currency. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained over 0.1% to 99.37 this morning.
Lower prices for crude oil, one of Canada’s major exports, also exerted pressure on the loonie. Spot prices for WTI crude oil fell 1.8% to trade at $92.68 per barrel this morning.
The USD/CAD forex pair fell 0.1% to 1.3728 this morning.
What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on new housing price index (1630 UAE Time), retail sales (1630 UAE Time) and PPI (1630 UAE Time) from Canada today.
New housing prices in Canada, which declined 0.4% in January, are expected to fall by 0.3% in February. Analysts expect Canada’s retail sales to decline 0.3% in February. Canadian producer prices, which jumped 2.7% in January, are expected to rise by 1.1% in February.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 0.44%, 0.27% and 0.29%, respectively.
Russia said that talks on ending the ongoing war in Ukraine were on hold due to the Middle East conflict, while Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said fresh talks were expected to take place this weekend. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.
The People’s Bank of China held its key lending rates at record lows for the tenth consecutive month, exerting pressure on the USD/CNY forex pair.
New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to NZ$257 million in February from NZ$444 million in the year-ago month. The latest reading coming in better than market estimates of a NZ$740 million deficit sent the NZD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Argentina’s trade surplus widened to $788 million in February from $275 million in the year-ago period, exerting pressure on the USD/ARS forex pair.
Colombia’s trade deficit rose to $1.65 billion in January from $1.60 billion in the year-ago period, which sent the USD/COP pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Eurozone’s current account (1300 UAE Time) and balance of trade (1400 UAE Time), Italy’s balance of trade (1300 UAE Time), current account (1300 UAE Time) and construction output (1400 UAE Time), Russia’s interest rate decision (1430 UAE Time), UK’s CBI industrial trends orders (1500 UAE Time), India’s bank loan growth (1530 UAE Time), deposit growth (1530 UAE Time), foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time) and infrastructure output (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s aggregate demand (1600 UAE Time) and private spending (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s raw materials prices (1630 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s GDP growth rate (2300 UAE Time) and retail sales (2300 UAE Time).
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