Oil rises on breach of US-Iran ceasefire agreement

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Crude oil prices traded higher this morning, recovering some of the sharp losses made in the previous session.

What happened: Renewed attacks by Israel on Lebanon raised concerns around the durability of the two-week ceasefire agreement in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz remained mostly closed following the Israeli strikes.

Why it matters: The Middle East conflict, which is now in its sixth week, has been driving energy prices higher with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday morning, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, less than two hours before Trump’s deadline. Both the US and Iran made official statements about their military holding back from strikes while negotiations take place to reach a deal.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said that delegations from the US and Iran are scheduled to meet in the capital city of Islamabad on Friday.

Iran also announced plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, which cooled oil prices on Wednesday.

Despite the recent announcements, Iranian media reported tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had been suspended due to the recent attacks by Israel.

Just hours after the ceasefire announcement, Israel launched one of the war’s biggest offensives against Lebanon, striking several residential and commercial areas in and around Beirut. The news triggered concerns around the fragility of the ceasefire agreement and fears of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again.

Meanwhile, data released on Wednesday showed that US crude inventories surged by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels during the week ended April 3, higher than market estimates of a gain of 701,000 barrels. US gasoline stocks declined by 1.6 million barrels to 239.3 million barrels in the week, while distillate stockpiles declined by 3.1 million barrels to 114.7 million barrels.

Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to oil prices, as a softer greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.1% to 99.07 this morning.

Spot prices for WTI crude oil rose more than 0.3% to $97.16 per barrel this morning, after recording sharp losses in the previous session. Spot prices for Brent crude also rose 0.3% to $99.53 per barrel.

In other energy trading, gasoline gained 0.6% to $3.0247, while natural gas rose 0.1% to $2.727 and heating oil jumped more than 3% to $3.9250.

What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the situation in the Middle East and any developments in the negotiations between the US and Iran.

Data on EIA (Energy Information Administration) natural gas stocks change (1830 UAE Time) from the US will be released today. US natural gas inventories, which surged by 36 billion cubic feet in the week ending March 27, are expected to rise by 41 billion cubic feet in the latest week.

The markets today

Delta Air Lines in focus today following the release of quarterly results

Context: Shares of Delta Air Lines surged on Wednesday after the company posted better-than-expected sales for the first quarter.

Details: Delta Air Lines reported record adjusted revenues of $14.2 billion, up 9.4% year-over-year and topping Wall Street expectations of $13.94 billion.

The company’s earnings came in at 64 cents per share, beating consensus estimates of 57 cents.

“We delivered earnings that were more than 40 percent higher than last year, even with a significant increase in fuel costs and operational disruptions across the industry,” CEO Ed Bastian said.

Passenger revenue grew 7% to $12.3 billion during the latest quarter, driven by growth in premium products. Other revenues jumped 41% to $3.33 billion, while cargo revenues rose 9%.

Despite the strong results, management issued a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, citing surging jet fuel prices. They said the Middle East conflict could increase costs by more than $2 billion in ‌the June quarter. Management guided to earnings of $1.00-$1.50 per share for the June quarter.

The company held off on providing an updated forecast for the full year due to concerns around rising fuel prices.

How shares responded: Delta’s shares rose 3.8% to close at $68.08 on Wednesday, following the release of quarterly results. The stock has jumped more than 12% over the past month.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring talks related to ending the US-Iran war and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.

Other Markets: US trading indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 2.85%, 2.51% and 2.80%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Ukraine called on the US to pressure Russia into the war, following the ceasefire agreement with Iran. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.

Indonesia’s motorbike sales contracted by 17.1% year-over-year to an 11-month low of 448,974 units in March, following a 1.0% gain in February. Motorbike sales falling for the first time since July 2025 lent support to the USD/IDR forex pair.

Sri Lanka’s number of foreign tourist arrivals fell by 19.7% year-over-year to 183,979 in March, compared to a 16.2% surge in the previous month, which sent the USD/LKR pair slightly higher in forex trading this morning.

Brazil’s car production jumped 27.6% to over 264,000 units in March. This being the best monthly production since October 2019 exerted pressure on the USD/BRL forex pair.

Mexico’s consumer confidence fell to 44.1 in March from 44.4 in the previous month, sending the USD/MXN pair higher in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Germany’s new car registrations (1400 UAE Time), South Africa’s manufacturing production (1500 UAE Time), Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Brazil’s retail sales (1600 UAE Time), Mexico’s inflation rate (1600 UAE Time), auto exports (1600 UAE Time), auto production (1600 UAE Time) and monetary policy meeting minutes (1900 UAE Time), US GDP growth rate (1630 UAE Time), personal income (1630 UAE Time), personal spending (1630 UAE Time), corporate profits (1630 UAE Time), initial jobless claims (1630 UAE Time), PCE price index (1630 UAE Time), continuing jobless claims (1630 UAE Time) and wholesale inventories (1800 UAE Time) as well as Argentina’s industrial production (2300 UAE Time).