Crude oil gains as US-Iran peace talks falter

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Crude oil prices edged higher this morning amid stalled peace talks between the US and Iran.

What happened: The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with limited shipments passing through the waterway and impacting global oil supplies.

Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to oil prices this morning.

Why it matters: While Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, the US has continued with its blockade of Iran’s ports. Traffic through the waterway remains limited, with only ⁠one oil tanker arriving at the Gulf on Sunday.

Although Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Pakistan’s capital city of Islamabad, US President Donald Trump announced the cancellation of plans to send his envoys for a second round of talks over the weekend.

Goldman Sachs raised its crude oil price projections for the fourth quarter to $83 per barrel for ⁠WTI and to $90 per barrel for Brent, citing lower crude output from the Middle East.

Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to oil prices, as a softer greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged lower to 98.50 this morning.

Spot price for WTI crude oil jumped 0.3% to $98.25 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.2% to $106.76 per barrel this morning.

Last ⁠week, Brent and WTI has gained around 17% and 13%, respectively, recording their biggest weekly surge since the beginning of the conflict.

In other commodities trading, gasoline gained 1.2% to $3.3674, while natural gas added 0.2% to $2.527 and heating oil prices jumped 3.2% to $3.9165 per barrel.

What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on developments around peace talks between the US and Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts note that the normalisation in oil flows could take months after the Strait reopens.

Data on US EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) crude oil stocks change will be released on Wednesday. US crude inventories jumped by 1.925 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels during the week ended April 17, versus market estimates of a decline of 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels to 228.4 million, while distillate stockpiles declined by 3.4 million barrels to 108.1 million during the week.

The markets today

Procter & Gamble in focus today following the release of quarterly results

Context: Shares of Procter & Gamble rose on Friday as the company reported stronger-than-expected results for its third quarter.

Details: Procter & Gamble’s quarterly sales rose 7% year-over-year to $21.235 billion, topping consensus estimates of $20.516 billion. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.59 per share, beating Wall Street expectations of $1.56 per share.

Procter & Gamble’s organic sales grew 3%, excluding forex impacts, acquisitions and divestitures, driven by 2% growth in volumes.

Organic sales of the beauty segment rose 7% year-over-year, while organic sales in the grooming segment climbed 1%. The healthcare segment reported organic sales of 2%.

Meanwhile, the company’s gross margin shrank 100 basis points, falling for the sixth quarter in a row, due to tariffs and investments in product innovation.

P&G affirmed its 2026 sales forecast of $85.127-$88.498 billion and adjusted earnings guidance of $6.83-$7.09 per share.

“We now expect a headwind of approximately $150 million after tax for the fiscal from a combination of commodity-linked cost inflation, feedstock exposures and logistics disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East,” CFO Andre Schulten said.

How shares responded: P&G’s stock jumped 2.5% to close at $148.18 on Friday following the release of quarterly results. The stock has gained around 5% year to date.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring the situation in the Middle East. Markets will also keep an eye on P&G’s investments in product innovation.

Other Markets: European indices closed lower on Friday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index down by 0.75%, 0.11%, 0.84% and 0.58%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

US President Donald Trump said he had “good” talks with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as he looks to end the war. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.

China’s industrial profits grew 15.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, after 15.2% growth during the first two months of the year, which exerted pressure on the USD/CNY forex pair.

Chile’s producer prices surged 14.8% year-over-year in March, accelerating from the previous month’s 12.9% gain, which sent the USD/CLP pair lower in forex trading this morning.

Mexico’s unemployment rate surged to 2.4% in March from 2.2% in the year-ago month. The latest reading coming in below market estimates of 2.5% exerted pressure on the USD/MXN forex pair.

Canada’s federal budget surplus shrunk to C$5.66 billion in February, from C$7.57 billion in the year-ago period. However, the USD/CAD pair slipped in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

UK’s CBI distributive trades (1400 UAE Time), Brazil’s bank lending (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s balance of trade (1600 UAE Time) as well as US NY Fed Bill purchases 4 to 12 months (1820 UAE Time) and Dallas Fed manufacturing index (1830 UAE Time).