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News
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
What’s happening: The US dollar edged higher this morning as investors monitored the latest developments in the US-Iran peace talks.
What happened: The greenback hovers close to 13-month highs after the first round of US-Iran negotiations sparked optimism around a peace agreement being signed soon.
The British pound fell versus the US dollar after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation.
Why it matters: In a major development, the US waived off sanctions on Iran, granting a 60-day license for the sale of Iranian oil on international markets. This raised speculations of a faster rebound in global crude supply.
Israel de-escalating its attack on Lebanon and shipping activity increasing through the Strait of Hormuz also lifted market sentiment.
Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to hike its benchmark interest rates this year. Although the central bank kept rates unchanged at its meeting last week, it raised its inflation outlook and pivoted to hawkish comments.
Deutsche Bank and BofA Global Research have also updated their projections to indicate a rate hike in September. BofA projects the Fed to hike interest rates by 25 bps each in September, October and December.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged higher to 101.02 this morning.
The GBP/USD forex pair slipped around 0.1% to 1.3243 this morning as labour party leader Keir Starmer announced his resignation. Rival Andy Burnham is widely expected to take over as the UK’s Prime Minister, which would have him the seventh premier in 10 years.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring announcements around the US-Iran peace talks.
Data on S&P Global composite PMI (1745 UAE Time), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1745 UAE Time) and S&P Global services PMI (1745 UAE Time) will be released today. Analysts expect the S&P Global composite PMI to decline to 50.8 in June from 51.5 in May. The manufacturing PMI is projected to fall to 54.5 from 55.1 in the previous month. However, the S&P Global services PMI, which declined to 50.7 in May from 51 in the previous month, is expected to rise to 50.9 in June.
This week’s PCE report, due to be released on Thursday, will also remain in focus as it is expected to provide further insights into underlying price pressures.
Context: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell this morning, after hitting record highs in the previous session.
Details: Equity markets in Japan retreated from record highs as investors booked profits following a sharp surge in AI and semiconductor stocks.
Data released this morning showed Japan’s S&P Global services PMI business activity index surged to 51.8 in June from 50.0 in the previous month. The latest reading indicated a renewed expansion in services activity following stagnation in the previous month.
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in June, from May’s reading of 54.5, signalling growth in factory activity for the sixth straight month. Japan’s composite PMI also rose to 52.5 in June from a reading of 51.1 in the previous month, reaching the highest level since March and signalling the 15th month of growth in private-sector activity.
Meanwhile, signs of progress in the US-Iran peace talks lent support to markets, especially after Washington granted Tehran a 60-day license for the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.89% to 71,711.67 this morning, while TOPIX declined 0.85% to 4,060.41.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair edged lower to 161.55 this morning.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring developments related to the US-Iran peace deal.
Data on Tokyo core CPI will be released on Friday. Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s central wards, which climbed by 1.3% year-over-year in May, easing from 1.5% in April, are expected to rise by 1.6% year-over-year in June.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 0.37% and 0.19%, respectively, and the Dow Jones index up by 0.29%.
Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot and fuel facilities in Crimea. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Australia’s S&P Global services PMI business activity index climbed to 49.9 in June from 48.7 in May. The figure continuing to show contraction in business activity exerted pressure on the AUD/USD forex pair.
South Korea’s composite consumer sentiment index gained by 0.5 point from the previous month to a reading of 95.5 in June, which sent the USD/KRW pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Eurozone’s consumer confidence rose by 1.3 percentage points to a reading of -17.7 in June from -19 in the previous month, lending support to the EUR/USD forex pair.
Colombia’s trade deficit widened to $2.11 billion in April from $1.67 billion in the year-ago period, with imports growing 15.8% year-over-year to $6.71 billion. However, the USD/COP pair fell in forex trading this morning.
Eurozone’s S&P Global composite PMI (1200 UAE Time), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1200 UAE Time) and S&P Global services PMI (1200 UAE Time), Spain’s balance of trade (1200 UAE Time), UK’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1230 UAE Time), S&P Global services PMI (1230 UAE Time), S&P Global composite PMI (1230 UAE Time) and CBI industrial trends orders (1400 UAE Time), Brazil Central Bank’s Copom meeting minutes (1500 UAE Time), Mexico’s economic activity (1600 UAE Time) and retail sales (1600 UAE Time), US ADP employment change weekly (1615 UAE Time), Redbook index (1655 UAE Time), S&P Global composite PMI (1745 UAE Time), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1745 UAE Time), S&P Global services PMI (1745 UAE Time), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (1800 UAE Time) and money supply (2100 UAE Time) as well as Argentina’s GDP growth rate (2300 UAE Time).
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