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Friday, June 26, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil prices fell this morning amid easing supply concerns.
What happened: Investors monitored progress in ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite a cargo vessel being hit off the coast of Oman.
Strength in the US dollar also exerted pressure on crude oil prices this morning.
Why it matters: A cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, raising security concerns over the control of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Some commercial vessels turned back, calling into question the recent progress made in the US-Iran peace talks.
Despite the latest incident, the number of crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf through the key waterway rose to the fastest level since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict, while Middle East countries continued to increase their production.
Meanwhile, data released on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories contracted by 6.088 million barrels to 412.1 million barrels during the week ended June 19. This was higher than market estimates of a decline of 4.5 million barrels. Total crude stockpiles, which includes those in the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), fell more than 15 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, hitting the lowest level since October 1984.
Gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.064 million barrels to 216.3 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles climbed by 3.064 million barrels to 106.1 million barrels.
Earthquakes in Venezuela also raised supply concerns, although preliminary assessments showed limited damage to oil, gas and refining infrastructure.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on crude oil prices as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained around 0.1% to 101.54 this morning.
Spot price for WTI crude oil fell 0.3% to $71.95 per barrel, while Brent crude prices declined 0.4% to $75.52 per barrel this morning. Both crude standards are on track to end the week with losses.
In other commodities trading, gasoline fell 0.8% to $2.8793, while natural gas declined 0.7% to trade at $3.320. Heating oil prices also slipped 0.5% to $3.1926 this morning.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring developments in the US-Iran talks.
Data on Baker Hughes oil rig count (2100 UAE Time) and Baker Hughes total rigs count (2100 UAE Time) will be released today. Crude oil rigs in the US came in unchanged at 433 in the June 19, while total rigs rose to 563 from 562 in the previous week.
Context: The Japanese yen edged lower against the US dollar this morning as investors digested the latest inflation data.
Details: Data released this morning showed that core consumer prices in Tokyo’s central wards jumped 1.6% year-over-year in June. This marked an acceleration from May’s 1.3% but came in-line with market estimates.
This was the first acceleration in prices since September 2025 and was also the fastest rise in three months, signalling continuous pricing pressures from the US-Iran conflict. However, inflation level remained below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2% for the fifth month in a row. Meanwhile, CPI excluding food and energy costs, surged 1.9% year-over-year, accelerating from 1.6% in the previous month.
The BoJ hiked its benchmark interest rates by 25 bps to the highest level since September 1995 at its latest meeting, announcing the first hike since last December 2025.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on the Japanese currency this morning. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, rose around 0.1% to 101.54.
The USD/JPY pair rose to 161.80, while the Nikkei 225 dipped 3.82% to 69,602.72 this morning.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring developments related to the US-Iran peace deal.
Data on retail sales (0350 UAE Time), housing starts (0900 UAE Time) and construction orders (0900 UAE Time) from Japan will be released on Monday. Retail sales in Japan, which rose 2.1% year-over-year in April, are expected to grow by 2.5% in May. Analysts expect Japan’s housing starts to surge by 15% year-over-year in May following an 11.4% gain in April, while construction orders are expected to jump 8% year-over-year in May following a 32.3% decline in April.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.14% and 0.75%, respectively, and the S&P 500 down by 0.01%.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country’s forces will attack Russian facilities used in the conflict. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Mexico’s unemployment rate rose to 2.8% in May from 2.5% in the previous month. The jobless rate surged to its highest level in eight months lent support to the USD/MXN forex pair.
Brazil’s consumer prices rose 0.41% during the first half of June, easing from 0.62% in the previous month. The latest reading coming in slightly below market estimates of 0.44% sent the USD/BRL pair lower in forex trading this morning.
UK’s CBI retail sales balance fell to -54 in June from -46 in the previous month. The figure missing market expectations of -41 exerted pressure on the GBP/USD forex pair.
Canada’s average weekly earnings of non-farm payroll employees surged by 3.8% year-over-year to C$1,346 in April, accelerating from 3.5% in March. However, the USD/CAD pair rose in forex trading this morning.
European Central Bank’s consumer inflation expectations (1200 UAE Time), China’s current account (1300 UAE Time), Italy’s business confidence (1300 UAE Time) and consumer confidence (1300 UAE Time), France’s unemployment benefit claims (1400 UAE Time), Brazil’s IGP-M inflation (1500 UAE Time), current account (1530 UAE Time), foreign direct investment (1530 UAE Time) and unemployment rate (1600 UAE Time), India’s bank loan growth (1530 UAE Time), deposit growth (1530 UAE Time) and foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s balance of trade (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s wholesale sales (1630 UAE Time), US goods trade balance (1630 UAE Time), wholesale inventories (1630 UAE Time), Michigan consumer sentiment (1800 UAE Time) and Michigan inflation expectations (1800 UAE Time).
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