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Monday, October 26, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil prices traded lower this morning after reaching close to a six-month high last week.
What happened: Oil prices retreated this morning despite rising tensions in the Middle East, while investors await data on US crude stocks this week.
Meanwhile, crude exports from the Middle East have rebounded close to the pre-war levels.
Why it matters: Rising Middle East concerns put energy markets back on edge on concerns over renewed strikes against Iran following Israel’s elections this week and the US midterm elections next week.
President Donald Trump indicated on Sunday that he would soon decide on whether to pursue a diplomatic framework with Tehran or resume military operations, amid escalating threats from Iran and Houthi militants.
Tensions escalated over the weekend after Houthis claimed a strike targeting King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh following strikes by Saudi Arabia on Sanaa and other regions of Yemen.
Although oil shipments from the Middle East have mostly recovered to pre-conflict levels, investors remain concerned about further escalation disrupting global oil supply chains.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to oil prices this morning as a softer greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell 0.1% to 101.70.
Spot price for WTI crude oil dipped 1.6% to $101.23 per barrel this morning, while Brent crude declined 1.3% to trade at $110.71 per barrel.
WTI crude had gained 2.3% last week, while Brent closed the week higher by 6%.
In other commodities trading, natural gas declined 4.3% to $2.527, gasoline slipped 0.8% to 3.1033 and heating oil prices fell 0.7% to 4.7528.
What to watch: The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) is scheduled to release data on crude oil stockpiles on Wednesday. US crude inventories, which dipped by 3.061 million barrels in the week ended October 16, are expected to contract by 0.3 million barrels in the latest week. US gasoline stockpiles declined by 2.952 million barrels in the week ended October 16, while heating oil stockpiles surged by 0.652 million barrels.
Context: The Dow Jones index dipped more than 600 points on Friday amid a surge in crude oil prices.
Details: The Nasdaq 100 fell slightly on Friday, a day after the tech-laden index recorded its biggest single-day decline since June, amid rising concerns over financing costs to support AI spending.
Most of the key sectors on the S&P 500 traded under pressure on Friday, with consumer staples and consumer discretionary among the top losers. However, energy and information technology stocks bucked the trend, closing Friday’s trading session higher.
On the earnings front, shares of American Express declined by 3.6% on Friday after the company reported mixed quarterly results and announced plans to cut 5% of its workforce. SLB’s shares jumped more than 7% after the company posted upbeat third-quarter profits.
Around one-third of S&P 500 firms will report quarterly earnings this week, with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon among the mostly closely watched companies.
The Dow Jones index dipped 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to close at 52,215.16, while the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68 on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 settled almost flat at 28,957.53.
Despite the decline, the blue-chip Dow Jones index ended the week higher by 0.4%.
What to watch: Data on US Chicago Fed national activity index (1630 UAE Time) and Dallas Fed manufacturing index (1630 UAE Time) will be released today. The Chicago Fed national activity index, which declined to -0.04 in August from a revised reading of +0.08 in the previous month, is expected to fall further to -0.1 in September. Analysts expect the Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing to decline to 7 in October from 9.8 in the previous month.
Other Markets: European indices closed lower on Friday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index down by 0.32%, 0.75%, 0.36% and 0.31%, respectively.
Ukraine and Russia agreed to a ceasefire in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory of Oleshky, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said peace talks could take place next month. The news sent the USD/RUB forex pair lower in forex trading this morning.
China’s general public budget expenditure rose 1% year-over-year to ¥21.02 trillion during the first nine months of the year. This being a slowdown from the 1.2% surge in the first eight months of 2026 lent support to the USD/CNY forex pair.
Canada’s retail sales rose 0.7% in September, extending a 1.2% surge in the previous month, which sent the USD/CAD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
UK’s S&P Global services PMI climbed to 53.1 in October from 52.1 in the previous month. The latest reading topping market estimates of 51.8 lent support to the GBP/USD forex pair.
Singapore’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.2% in September from August’s reading of 2.3%, which sent the USD/SGD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
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