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Monday, November 02, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil prices traded lower this morning as investors monitored the latest developments in the Middle East.
What happened: Oil prices fell more than 1% after mediators from Iran and Qatar held talks for the third consecutive day to end the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.
Strength in the US dollar also exerted pressure on crude oil prices, while investors await the midterm elections this week.
Why it matters: Brent crude prices ended last month at their strongest level in six months as investors remained concerned over the possibility of escalating tensions between the Washington and Tehran after the US midterm elections this week.
Diplomatic talks between Qatar and Iran continued for the third day, with negotiators looking to halt the US-Israel conflict with Tehran ahead of the upcoming US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3.
US President Donald Trump signalled a temporary pause on new military strikes prior to the midterm elections, citing progress in negotiations.
Saudi Arabia boosted crude exports in October despite continuous strikes by the Houthis on its energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) agreed over the weekend to leave current crude output targets unchanged through December to assess the evolving global oil supply and demand dynamics.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on crude oil prices as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged higher to 101.92 this morning.
Spot price for WTI crude oil fell 1.1% to trade at $100.93 per barrel this morning, while Brent crude declined 1.1% to $110.57 per barrel.
In other commodities trading, gasoline dipped 2.1% to $3.0889, while heating oil shed 1.4% to reach $4.6124. Natural gas bucked the trend, with prices rising 0.3% to $2.907.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the US midterm elections on Tuesday.
Data on the US EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) crude oil stockpiles will be released on Wednesday. US crude oil inventories contracted by 1.892 million barrels in the week ended October 23, compared to a drawdown of 3.061 million barrels in the previous week. Distillate inventories fell 1.462 million barrels, while gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.87 million barrels during the week.
Context: The AUD/USD forex pair slipped this morning as investors assessed the latest economic reports.
Details: Data released this morning showed that Australia’s Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge surged 0.5% in October, accelerating from 0.3% in September. The inflation gauge rising for the fourth straight month signalling continuous pricing pressures before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision on Tuesday.
Annual headline inflation accelerated to a six-month high of 4.3% in September, well above the central bank’s 2%-3% target range. Investors widely expect the RBA to hike its benchmark interest rate on Tuesday, which would be the central bank’s fifth hike this year.
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI in Australia was revised lower to 49.6 in October from a preliminary reading of 49.7. The figure remained unchanged from the 21-month low of 49.6 in September. This marked the second straight month of contraction in manufacturing activity.
Private-sector house approvals in Australia dipped 5.3% to 10,432 units in September following a 5.4% gain in the previous month. Australia’s dwelling approvals rose 5.1% to 17,948 units in September, after declining 5.2% in the previous month.
Strength in the US dollar also weighed on the AUD/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, rose to 101.92 this morning.
The AUD/USD forex pair edged lower to 0.7026 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 dipped around 0.6% to 8,851.60.
What to watch: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday (0730 UAE Time). The RBA, which hiked its cash rate target by 25 bps to 4.60% in September, is widely expected to raise rates to 4.85% at its upcoming meeting.
Data on S&P Global composite PMI, S&P Global services PMI and household spending will be released on Wednesday. Analysts expect Australia’s S&P Global composite PMI to fall to 47.7 in October from 51.3 in September, while the services PMI business activity index is projected to decline to 47.8 in October from 51.9 in the previous month. Australian household spending, which came in flat in August, is expected to grow 0.2% in September.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 1.09%, 1.82% and 3.46%, respectively.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia launched attacks on energy infrastructure in four regions over the weekend, leaving several homes without power. The news sent the USD/RUB forex lower in forex trading this morning.
China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0 in October from 52.1 in the previous month, which lent support to the USD/CNY forex pair.
Japan’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI declined to 53.3 in October, from 54.1 in September, which sent the USD/JPY pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Thailand’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.8 in October from 54.3 in September. Manufacturing PMI surging to its highest level since December 2025 exerted pressure on the USD/THB forex pair.
Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted 3.8% year-over-year in the third quarter, following a 4.7% decline in the previous quarter. GDP contracting for the second straight quarter sent the USD/SAR pair higher in forex trading this morning.
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