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Wednesday, November 04, 2026
What’s happening: The US dollar fell this morning as investors monitored midterm election results.
What happened: Investors are bracing for a strong showing by the Democrats in the US midterm elections.
Markets also assessed the latest economic reports released by the US on Tuesday, while awaiting further data today.
Why it matters: Early results from the US midterm elections rolled in on Tuesday, with voters delivering their first major verdict on President Donald Trump’s second term.
Democrats won the US Senate, ending Republican dominance in Washington. The Democratic Party took control of the House of Representatives and Senate, flipping seats in states like Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina and Ohio.
Meanwhile, crude oil extended its decline, after prices fell to a four-week low. Investors are balancing potential supply risks from recent escalations in Iran and Ukraine against ongoing diplomatic talks to resolve both conflicts.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the RealClearMarkets/TIPP economic optimism index surged to 48.5 in November from 46.8 in October. The figure was above market estimates of 46.2.
US job openings unexpectedly climbed by 333,000 to 7.523 million in September, from 7.19 million in August, topping market projections of 7.10 million.
New orders for manufactured goods in the US rose 1.8% in September, accelerating from 0.3% growth in the previous month and surpassing market expectations of a 1.2% gain. The latest reading signalled the strongest rise in factory orders since April.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell more than 0.4% to 101.45 this morning.
The EUR/USD forex pair gained around 0.5% to reach 1.1246, while the GBP/USD pair rose 0.4% to 1.3460.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the US midterm election result, which is expected to significantly impact the greenback.
Data on balance of trade (1730 UAE Time) and ISM services PMI (1900 UAE Time) from the US will be released today. The US trade deficit, which widened to $105.6 billion in August from $92.8 billion in the previous month, is expected to widen further to $108 billion in September. Analysts expect the ISM services PMI to decline to 54.8 in October from 54.9 in September.
Context: The FTSE 100 index fell to a three-week low on Tuesday, amid weakness in commodities.
Details: Mining and oil companies led a market downturn, driven by falling commodity prices and rising political uncertainty amid concerns over Iran and the US midterm elections.
Mining companies were among the worst performers as gold, silver, and copper prices slid. Shares of Endeavour, Anglo American and Rio Tinto recorded losses during the session.
In the energy sector, oil majors including Shell and BP settled lower, amid a continuous decline in oil prices.
Shares of Unilever slipped about 1% after the company announced a long-term plan to slash €1 billion in costs by the end of 2029.
Data released on Monday showed that the S&P Global UK manufacturing PMI surged to 52.8 in October from 51.9 in the previous month. Although the figure was in-line with market estimates, it marked the strongest reading since May.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England is widely expected to announce its first rate hike since 2023 on Thursday, amid rising inflationary concerns due to the US-Iran conflict.
The FTSE 100 index dipped 1.14% to close at 10,638.43, while the domestically-focused FTSE 250 shed 0.49% to settle at 24,674.91 on Tuesday.
What to watch: Data on UK’s S&P Global composite PMI (1330 UAE Time) and S&P Global services PMI (1330 UAE Time) will be released today. Analysts expect the UK composite PMI output index to surge to 53.1 in October from 52 in September, while the services PMI is projected to improve to 53.1 in October from 52.1 in the previous month.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.36% and 0.68%, respectively, and the Dow Jones index down by 0.38%.
Russian forces bombed an aid centre in the village of Komyshuvakha in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. The news sent the USD/RUB forex slightly lower in forex trading this morning.
China’s RatingDog general services PMI fell to 50.8 in October from 51.6 in the previous month. The figure coming in short of market expectations of 51.5 lent support to the USD/CNY forex pair.
Australian household spending surged 0.6% in September, recovering from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, which sent the AUD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Hong Kong’s S&P Global SAR PMI climbed to 50.2 in October from 49.2 in the previous month. This being the first growth in private sector activity in three months exerted pressure on the USD/HKD forex pair.
Singapore’s S&P Global PMI slipped to 56.7 in October from 58.1 in the previous month. The reading remaining in the expansion zone sent the USD/SGD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
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