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Asset Watch

Add Amazon ahead of earnings?

Tuesday April 30, 2024

While Netflix and Meta Platforms became quarterly casualties, Tesla, Microsoft, and Alphabet emerged victorious on the back of strong earnings/guidance.
And with Amazon set to report on Apr. 30, Wedbush analysts expect another Big Tech celebration. They increased their price target from $220 to $225 and wrote on Apr. 24.
“We think Amazon is well positioned this year with multiple drivers of sustainable margin expansion in place. The company has reported operating income ahead of [Wall Street] estimates for five consecutive quarters, and we estimate” Q1 operating income of $11.6 billion, about 5% above the consensus.
But while fundamental risks are elevated this week and volatility has increased, the technical backdrop still supports a bullish bias.

Amazon recorded a weekly hammer candle last week, which is marked by a long wick (intraweek sell-off) before the stock closed near the highs. The bullish pattern typically precedes reversals and highlights investors’ enthusiasm to buy the small correction.
Last week’s reversal also allowed Amazon to close above its 10-week moving average, which has been a solid momentum indicator since the stock bottomed in late 2022. Outside of a few breakdowns, the 10-week MA has been a reliable support level that has rewarded the bulls for scaling in near the area.
A long position remains justified if Amazon trades above the key level. If not, a stop-loss order could be placed a few percentage points below the 10-week MA to mitigate losses and protect against false breakdowns.
So, should you embrace the fundamental risk and position for an Amazon uprising, or wait until after the earnings release to make your move?


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